Euro / U.S. Dollar
Short

6F EUR/USD Trade Plan (15-Minute Chart)

40
Structure & Fibonacci Setup

Swing low at 1.14994 (Aug 1 15:30) → swing high at 1.15935 (Aug 4 09:30).

Draw 0–100% retracement; project extensions beyond 100% for targets (Murphy, 1999).

Entries

First Scale-In:

Sell 1 contract at the 14.6% retracement (~1.15835).

Full Position:

Sell 10 contracts at the Fib 61.8–161.8% extension confluence (~1.17103).

Profit-Taking Levels

TP 1: Fib 78.6% extension at 1.14141

TP 2: Fib 100% extension at 1.12778

TP 3: Fib 161.8% extension (“risk-off” zone) at 1.10559 (Smith, 2023)

Risk Management

Stop-Loss: Above the 200% extension (~1.17857), just beyond the recent swing high (CME Group, 2025).

Position Sizing: Scale in to control risk; initial 1-lot entry limits drawdown if confluence fails.

Rationale

Anticipate Monday risk-off flows to strengthen USD and push EUR/USD lower.

Multi-leg entries align with high-probability Fib confluence zones and macro USD bias (Murphy, 1999; Smith, 2023).

References
CME Group. (2025). Euro FX Futures contract specifications. Retrieved from cmegroup.com/trading/fx/euro-fx.html

Murphy, J. J. (1999). Technical analysis of the financial markets: A comprehensive guide to trading methods and applications. New York Institute of Finance.

Smith, A. (2023). Risk-off and currency correlations. Journal of FX Markets, 5(2), 45–60.

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