Hello, I'm Forex trader Andrea Russo, creator of the SwipeUP Elite FX Method that analyzes the market like a Hedge Fund. Today I want to talk to you about the most important economic news of the last few hours and how these are influencing, in real time, the global currency market.
## 🔜 US inflation: is the Fed heading for a cut?
The CPI data released yesterday surprised the markets: annual core inflation stopped at +2.8% while the general figure stood at +2.4%, below expectations. This inflationary cooling immediately triggered speculation about a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve as early as September. The Dollar Index (DXY) reacted negatively, losing ground and touching the lowest levels since April.
### Forex Impact:
* The dollar weakens across the board.
* EUR/USD tested the 1.15 area
* GBP, JPY and CHF strengthened in counter-balance.
## 🌐 US-China trade tensions: half-way deals
Over the past 24 hours, President Trump spoke of "partial progress" in talks with China on tariffs and rare metals. However, the lack of a definitive deal keeps global uncertainty high. Investors are weighing the risk of a new escalation, especially in strategic sectors such as technology and raw materials.
### Forex impact:
* AUD and NZD show high volatility.
* JPY benefits as a safe haven currency.
* Commodity currencies remain reactive to geopolitical developments.
## 📉 ECB: rate cut and expansionary forward guidance
The European Central Bank has cut interest rates to 2%, marking the eighth consecutive cut. The governor opened up to further expansionary measures in the third quarter, should inflation fail to rebound towards the 2% target.
### FX Impact:
* The euro remains under pressure, despite the dollar weakness.
* EUR/CHF in congestion.
* EUR/USD in a sideways phase after the initial rally.
## 🚗 Emerging Markets: New Cycle of Strength
According to the World Bank, growth in emerging markets will slow to 3.8% in 2025. However, currencies such as the Brazilian real (BRL) and the Mexican peso (MXN) have gained momentum thanks to the dollar weakness and speculative inflows on carry trades.
### FX Impact:
* BRL and MXN strengthen.
* Long-term opportunities on USD/EM crosses.
* Beware of political risks and local inflation.
## ⛽ Oil rally: domino effect on currencies
Oil prices rose this week: WTI hit +6%, while Brent marked +4%. The rally was triggered by improvements in US-China relations and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
### Forex Impact:
* Strengthening CAD and NOK.
* EUR and JPY penalized as net importers.
* Correlation opportunities on USD/CAD.
## 🔄 Forex Outlook: what to expect now
The market has entered a phase of **macro realignment**:
* The dollar is in structural correction.
* The euro is struggling between ECB stimulus and USD weakness.
* Safe haven currencies (JPY, CHF) remain strong.
* Emerging markets and commodity currencies show momentum.
In the short term, the key will be the evolution of US data (PPI, retail sales) and new statements from the Fed.
Keep following me for updates and operational analysis always based on real data and institutional methodology.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.