After an explosive bounce from the 1.0800–1.0850 demand zone, EUR/USD is now in a key structural retest around 1.1300. The COT data shows a net increase in long positions by Non-Commercials, but with the Dollar still holding structural strength in its own COT report and an RSI showing bearish divergence, this area may act as a key zone for price discovery.
📊 WHAT THE DATA SAYS:
📉 Price Action: Clear rejection from the 1.1450–1.1550 supply zone. Retest at key structure near 1.1300.
📑 COT (EURO): Net long positions up by +183 (196,388 long vs 120,591 short) = bullish tone.
📑 COT (USD): Still balanced, but Non-Commercials are reducing net longs → potential weakening.
📊 Retail Sentiment (MyFXBook): 70% retail traders are short = contrarian long bias remains.
🌱 Seasonality (May): Historically negative for EUR/USD (–0.0088) = potential downside pressure ahead.
📌 Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.1450 / 1.1550 (Supply Zone)
Support: 1.1300 (Structural retest) — 1.0850 (Strong demand)
📉 BASE SCENARIO: Pullback toward 1.1100–1.1050 before renewed long accumulation.
📈 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO: Break above 1.1450 could target 1.1600–1.1720 zone.
🔍 Watch out for May's seasonal inversion and extreme speculative positioning — fakeouts may precede real directional moves.
📊 WHAT THE DATA SAYS:
📉 Price Action: Clear rejection from the 1.1450–1.1550 supply zone. Retest at key structure near 1.1300.
📑 COT (EURO): Net long positions up by +183 (196,388 long vs 120,591 short) = bullish tone.
📑 COT (USD): Still balanced, but Non-Commercials are reducing net longs → potential weakening.
📊 Retail Sentiment (MyFXBook): 70% retail traders are short = contrarian long bias remains.
🌱 Seasonality (May): Historically negative for EUR/USD (–0.0088) = potential downside pressure ahead.
📌 Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.1450 / 1.1550 (Supply Zone)
Support: 1.1300 (Structural retest) — 1.0850 (Strong demand)
📉 BASE SCENARIO: Pullback toward 1.1100–1.1050 before renewed long accumulation.
📈 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO: Break above 1.1450 could target 1.1600–1.1720 zone.
🔍 Watch out for May's seasonal inversion and extreme speculative positioning — fakeouts may precede real directional moves.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.