Euro / U.S. Dollar
Long

EURUSD The November Megaphone is still holding

619
The war on European soil hasn't of course left the EURUSD pair unaffected on the short-term, but on the longer-term we see the Megaphone pattern that started in late November still holding. This is an update to my February 01 analysis:

EURUSD approaching the 1D MA50 with the ECB rate & NFP in focus


As you see, the price made almost an exact bottom on the Megaphone's Lower Lows trend-line and has strongly rebounded. Note that this is just the technical perspective and heavy fundamentals (such as the current war in Ukraine) may invalidate it if things escalate but once the situation stabilizes, the market will resume looking into the core macro-economic fundamentals of the Fed and the ECB.

Right now yesterday's bottom bounce may be enough to re-test the 1.14850 Resistance (1), which has already failed 4 times (Feb 10 was literally only broken by a fraction). Only a 1D candle close above that Resistance may be enough to bring a new Higher High to the Megaphone pattern and that should align perfectly with a 1D MA200 test (orange trend-line) for the first time since June 17 2021.

Outside the Megaphone, we have to look to above the 1.16900 Resistance (2) for a break-out buy (to 1.19100) and below the 1.11000 Support for a break-out sell (to 1.0940).

P.S. As the 1W chart below shows, always keep a long-term perspective as an investor:

EURUSD Rate hike = Pair rises based on 30 year historic sample




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