EURUSD: July inflation shapes sentiment

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Two weeks ago was a quite intensive time when it comes to U.S. macro data, so investors used the previous week to digest the latest available information and adjust their positions accordingly. As for data posted during the previous week for the U.S. economy, the ISM Services PMI in July reached 50,1, which was a bit lower from forecasted 51,5.
Economic data posted for the EuroZone include the HCOB Composite PMI final for July in Germany, which was standing at 50,6 while the same indicator for the Euro Zone was at the level of 50,9. Both indicators were in line with market expectations. The Producers Price Index in the Euro Zone in June was increased by 0,8% for the month, reaching 0,6% on a yearly basis. Factory orders in June in Germany dropped by -1,0% for the month, while the market was expecting to see an increase of 0,8%. Retail Sales in the Euro Zone in June were higher by 0,3%, leading the indicator to 3,1% for the year. The figure was higher from market expectations of 2,6%. The Balance of Trade in Germany in June was standing at euro 14,6B, much lower from expected euro 17,3B. The Industrial Production in Germany in June dropped by -1,9% for the month, again significantly surpassing the expected drop of -0,5%.
In line with the market repositioning based on the latest published data, so the U.S. Dollar headed toward the levels from three weeks ago. The eurusd pair started the previous week by testing the 1,14 support line and swiftly moved to the higher grounds, reaching 1,1691 as the highest weekly level. The currency pair closed the week at 1,1640. The RSI moved from the oversold market side, and reached the level of 50 as of the weekend. It still does not provide a clear suggestion that the market is ready to head toward the overbought market side. The MA50 continued its divergence from MA200, without an indication of a potential slowdown of divergence in the coming period.
Based on current charts, there is some potential for eurusd to move to even higher grounds in the coming period, in order to test the 1,17 resistance level. At the same time, there is also some probability that a modest reversal might continue from Friday's trading session at the start of the week ahead. In this sense, support at 1,16 could be tested for one more time. Still, it should be considered that the US inflation figures for July will be posted during the week, as well as retail sales in July, in which sense, some modestly higher volatility might be implied at the release of these data.

Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in August in Germany, Industrial Production in the Euro Zone in June, GDP Growth Rate second estimate for Q2 in Euro Zone,
USD: Inflation Rate in July, Producers Price Index in July, Retail Sales in July, Industrial Production in July, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary for August.

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