🧱 Wave Structure & Pattern
Wave (1)–(5) structure is complete with strong impulse.
Wave (5) looks extended with a steep angle — could mean temporary exhaustion before a pullback or sideways correction.
Volume surged heavily during Wave (5), suggesting high participation and buying climax potential.
✏️ Key Levels:
Current Price: ~1.1394
Support Zone: Around 1.1300–1.1250 (previous resistance = now support)
Next Resistance Levels:
Minor: 1.1450
Major: 1.1600 (psychological and historical)
📈 Trendlines:
Clear rising trendline support from late January — keep an eye on any break below for early reversal signs.
A healthy retest of the 1.1300 zone could offer a long re-entry if bullish structure holds.
⚠️ Risk Watch:
After a 5-wave move, expect either an ABC corrective phase or a consolidation range.
Don’t get faked out by small pullbacks — corrections are normal after strong impulses.
🧠 Fundamental Analysis
📰 Key Drivers Today:
🇺🇸 U.S. Data / Sentiment:
Retail Sales (March) — stronger data could push the USD higher, putting pressure on EUR/USD.
Fed’s rate outlook: any hawkish hints from FOMC speakers or stronger data can boost USD.
🇪🇺 Eurozone Factors:
ECB’s recent dovish pivot is in focus.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment release is coming — a major sentiment mover.
Slower EU inflation data may keep ECB from tightening further, limiting euro upside unless the dollar weakens.
💸 Bond Yields & Dollar Index (DXY):
Rising U.S. yields or a DXY bounce could be a headwind.
DXY is hovering at key support — a rebound could stall EUR/USD's rally.
📊 Sentiment Overview:
Short-term: Bullish, but approaching overbought.
Medium-term: Cautious bullish — possible retest of support before continuation.
Macro: Dependent on U.S. data surprises and ECB tone.
🔍 Summary & Strategy Thoughts:
Bias Levels to Watch Trigger Idea
⚡ Bullish Break above 1.1450 Target 1.1600 if dollar weakens further
⚠️ Neutral / Pullback Retest of 1.1300–1.1250 support Buy-the-dip zone if trendline holds
🐻 Bearish (Short-Term) Break below 1.1250 Possible deeper correction toward 1.1100–1.1050
Wave (1)–(5) structure is complete with strong impulse.
Wave (5) looks extended with a steep angle — could mean temporary exhaustion before a pullback or sideways correction.
Volume surged heavily during Wave (5), suggesting high participation and buying climax potential.
✏️ Key Levels:
Current Price: ~1.1394
Support Zone: Around 1.1300–1.1250 (previous resistance = now support)
Next Resistance Levels:
Minor: 1.1450
Major: 1.1600 (psychological and historical)
📈 Trendlines:
Clear rising trendline support from late January — keep an eye on any break below for early reversal signs.
A healthy retest of the 1.1300 zone could offer a long re-entry if bullish structure holds.
⚠️ Risk Watch:
After a 5-wave move, expect either an ABC corrective phase or a consolidation range.
Don’t get faked out by small pullbacks — corrections are normal after strong impulses.
🧠 Fundamental Analysis
📰 Key Drivers Today:
🇺🇸 U.S. Data / Sentiment:
Retail Sales (March) — stronger data could push the USD higher, putting pressure on EUR/USD.
Fed’s rate outlook: any hawkish hints from FOMC speakers or stronger data can boost USD.
🇪🇺 Eurozone Factors:
ECB’s recent dovish pivot is in focus.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment release is coming — a major sentiment mover.
Slower EU inflation data may keep ECB from tightening further, limiting euro upside unless the dollar weakens.
💸 Bond Yields & Dollar Index (DXY):
Rising U.S. yields or a DXY bounce could be a headwind.
DXY is hovering at key support — a rebound could stall EUR/USD's rally.
📊 Sentiment Overview:
Short-term: Bullish, but approaching overbought.
Medium-term: Cautious bullish — possible retest of support before continuation.
Macro: Dependent on U.S. data surprises and ECB tone.
🔍 Summary & Strategy Thoughts:
Bias Levels to Watch Trigger Idea
⚡ Bullish Break above 1.1450 Target 1.1600 if dollar weakens further
⚠️ Neutral / Pullback Retest of 1.1300–1.1250 support Buy-the-dip zone if trendline holds
🐻 Bearish (Short-Term) Break below 1.1250 Possible deeper correction toward 1.1100–1.1050
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.