EUR/USD – Testing Premium Zone, ECB & USD Macro Drive Next Move
EUR/USD is consolidating near 1.1770–1.1780, right inside the premium liquidity zone (0.786–0.886 Fib) and just below the Weak High at 1.1830. This level is critical for the next directional move.
Macro Landscape
ECB paused at 2.0% after eight consecutive cuts but may ease again in late 2025 as inflation trends toward 1.4% (ECB, 2025).
USD remains under pressure on expectations of Fed cuts, high fiscal deficits, and tariff concerns, creating a medium-term bias toward EUR strength (Reuters, 2025).
EU–U.S. trade deal at 15% tariff base reduces downside risks but does not fully remove growth headwinds (OECD, 2025).
Technical Outlook
Key Resistance: 1.1780–1.1830 (premium zone).
Upside Targets: 1.1905 (N) and 1.2085 (V) on breakout.
Support: 1.1680–1.1630 (Cloud/Kijun) and 1.1500 pivot for mean reversion.
VolanX DSS Signal:
Score: 58/100 (Neutral-to-Bullish)
Trend remains constructive but premium levels suggest a possible pullback unless the pair clears 1.1835 with momentum.
Plan:
Watch for a fade setup at 1.178–1.183 with stops >1.184.
A confirmed breakout above 1.1835 opens a run toward 1.19–1.21.
#EURUSD #Forex #MacroStrategy #ECB #CurrencyMarkets #TradingView
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
EUR/USD is consolidating near 1.1770–1.1780, right inside the premium liquidity zone (0.786–0.886 Fib) and just below the Weak High at 1.1830. This level is critical for the next directional move.
Macro Landscape
ECB paused at 2.0% after eight consecutive cuts but may ease again in late 2025 as inflation trends toward 1.4% (ECB, 2025).
USD remains under pressure on expectations of Fed cuts, high fiscal deficits, and tariff concerns, creating a medium-term bias toward EUR strength (Reuters, 2025).
EU–U.S. trade deal at 15% tariff base reduces downside risks but does not fully remove growth headwinds (OECD, 2025).
Technical Outlook
Key Resistance: 1.1780–1.1830 (premium zone).
Upside Targets: 1.1905 (N) and 1.2085 (V) on breakout.
Support: 1.1680–1.1630 (Cloud/Kijun) and 1.1500 pivot for mean reversion.
VolanX DSS Signal:
Score: 58/100 (Neutral-to-Bullish)
Trend remains constructive but premium levels suggest a possible pullback unless the pair clears 1.1835 with momentum.
Plan:
Watch for a fade setup at 1.178–1.183 with stops >1.184.
A confirmed breakout above 1.1835 opens a run toward 1.19–1.21.
#EURUSD #Forex #MacroStrategy #ECB #CurrencyMarkets #TradingView
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.