Hello, I am Forex trader Andrea Russo, and today I present to you a detailed analysis of the most important news of the week (26–29 May 2025) and their real impact on the Forex market, with strategic observations to immediately include in your trading plan.
In this article we will examine the 7 most significant macroeconomic and geopolitical events that have affected the main currency pairs, evaluating the effect on USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD and emerging currencies. Everything is filtered according to the SwipeUP v9 Elite FX model, based on institutional data, real sentiment and candle-by-candle simulations.
📌 1. USA: Court stops Trump Tariffs
One of the most relevant news of the week comes from the United States: a federal court has blocked the application of Donald Trump's trade tariffs, declaring them illegitimate. This event has caused an immediate reaction in the currency markets.
🔍 Forex Impact:
The US Dollar (USD) had an initial technical bounce, but then lost strength in the European session.
Pairs such as EUR/USD and USD/JPY showed strong reactivity. EUR/USD was rejected from 1.1250, while USD/JPY found support.
📊 Strategic Implications:
Risk perceptions on the greenback are rising.
Interest in alternative safe haven currencies such as gold and the Swiss franc is growing.
📌 2. US Q1 GDP Downward
US Q1 GDP was revised down from -0.1% to -0.2%, confirming a mild economic contraction.
🔍 Forex Impact:
The dollar lost momentum, reinforcing the narrative of a possible rate cut.
EUR/USD could consolidate above 1.1200 ahead of stronger EU PMI data.
📊 Key Pairs:
EUR/USD long on confirmation of 1.1200 support.
Possible breakout on AUD/USD if US data continues to disappoint.
📌 3. US Inventories and Oil Rebound: CAD on the Boost
US crude inventories fell more than expected, and WTI price is back above $79.
🔍 FX Impact:
CAD strengthens on fundamental and intermarket basis.
Potential short on USD/CAD with target area 1.3550.
📌 4. UK: Very Strong Data and Resilient GBP
UK macro data surprised to the upside: services PMI and core inflation stable, supporting the British pound.
🔍 Forex Impact:
GBP/USD above 1.2700 with room for expansion.
EUR/GBP rejected by 0.8600: potential for bearish continuation.
📌 5. Forex Options Expirations and Expected Volatility
Thursday and Friday are crowded with large option expirations, which can act as price magnets.
📍 Levels to Watch:
EUR/USD: 1.1200 and 1.1250 → potential for spikes or rejections.
USD/JPY: 145.00 → technical and options confluence.
AUD/USD: 0.6650 key zone with volumes in compression.
📊 Trading advice: avoid new entries near option levels without confirmation of real breakout.
📌 6. Nvidia and US Tech Rally: Anti-Yen Effect
Nvidia’s results have boosted the entire US tech sector, causing a wave of risk-on.
🔍 Impact on FX:
JPY and CHF weak on low interest in safe-haven assets.
Great setups on AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, EUR/CHF long.
📌 7. China: PMI Above 50, Support for AUD/NZD
Chinese manufacturing PMI data has returned above 50, signaling expansion.
🔍 Impact on FX:
AUD and NZD find technical and macro support.
Watch out for AUD/CHF, where macro divergences could generate a bearish reversal.
🧠 Forex Trading Strategy for the Next Week
✅ Strong Currencies:
CAD (oil + risk-on sentiment)
GBP (macro data + technical momentum)
EUR (resilience on USD and supports held)
❌ Weak Currencies:
USD (negative GDP, political uncertainty)
JPY (no safe haven demand)
AUD (potentially vulnerable on risk-on downside)
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.