== MARKET RECAP ==
Following the FOMC Meeting held on Wednesday June 16th, the greenback sored against all major currencies dropping EURUSD down to fresh monthly lows around 1.1850
The strength of the US Dollar was contributed to the hawkish undertone of potentially easing monetary policy sooner than what Fed officials thought in their previous 18 member quarterly meeting. The Fed also adjusted their economic outlook for 2021, 2022 and 2023. More than half of the members see 2 rate hikes by 2023 and many also see rate hikes as early as 2022. Talks of tapering in terms of reducing asset purchases was amongst some of the comments made at the FOMC.
Last week the US dollar pulled back heading into Jerome Powell's testimony and continued to retrace following the meeting in the Q&A session.
The Fed has always be reliant on economic data and wants to see a stronger recovery along with full employment before they will raise interest rates. On Friday the PCE report (the Fed's #1 economic tool for indications of real inflation) came in line with expectations at 3.4% which was a rise of 3 basis points from the previous report of 3.1% in May. This is a clear indication that inflation is on the rise, however the fed continues to foresee inflation as transitory.
GDP figures also came in line with expectations of 6.4% from the previous quarter of 4.3% which are levels much higher than reports back in 2018 and 2019.
Next week, some of the major reports to look out for include: ADP on Wednesday, ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday, along with NFP and the Unemployment figures on Friday. Should all of these reports beat expectations, the US Dollar will likely strengthen further. On the other hand, if numbers disappoint, the USD may remain under pressure as speculators anticipate the potential tapering timeline may be extended.
== TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ==
Taking a look at EURUSD on the daily time-frame, price-action closed below the 1.1950 pivot zone along with the 200 SMA. Next week should we see a new daily lower low, this may spark some renewed dollar strength and thus push this pair lower. A break above Friday's high price may sideline further declines with EURUSD as price-action will look to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Following the FOMC Meeting held on Wednesday June 16th, the greenback sored against all major currencies dropping EURUSD down to fresh monthly lows around 1.1850
The strength of the US Dollar was contributed to the hawkish undertone of potentially easing monetary policy sooner than what Fed officials thought in their previous 18 member quarterly meeting. The Fed also adjusted their economic outlook for 2021, 2022 and 2023. More than half of the members see 2 rate hikes by 2023 and many also see rate hikes as early as 2022. Talks of tapering in terms of reducing asset purchases was amongst some of the comments made at the FOMC.
Last week the US dollar pulled back heading into Jerome Powell's testimony and continued to retrace following the meeting in the Q&A session.
The Fed has always be reliant on economic data and wants to see a stronger recovery along with full employment before they will raise interest rates. On Friday the PCE report (the Fed's #1 economic tool for indications of real inflation) came in line with expectations at 3.4% which was a rise of 3 basis points from the previous report of 3.1% in May. This is a clear indication that inflation is on the rise, however the fed continues to foresee inflation as transitory.
GDP figures also came in line with expectations of 6.4% from the previous quarter of 4.3% which are levels much higher than reports back in 2018 and 2019.
Next week, some of the major reports to look out for include: ADP on Wednesday, ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday, along with NFP and the Unemployment figures on Friday. Should all of these reports beat expectations, the US Dollar will likely strengthen further. On the other hand, if numbers disappoint, the USD may remain under pressure as speculators anticipate the potential tapering timeline may be extended.
== TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ==
Taking a look at EURUSD on the daily time-frame, price-action closed below the 1.1950 pivot zone along with the 200 SMA. Next week should we see a new daily lower low, this may spark some renewed dollar strength and thus push this pair lower. A break above Friday's high price may sideline further declines with EURUSD as price-action will look to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.