Euro / U.S. Dollar
Long

Fundamental Market Analysis for July 1, 2025 EURUSD

23
Event to pay attention to today:

01.07 16:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

01.07 16:30 EET. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

01.07 17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI

EUR/USD is trading in negative territory near 1.1790 in the early European session on Tuesday. The US dollar (USD) is weakening against the euro (EUR) amid growing budget concerns and uncertainty surrounding trade deals.

Four people familiar with the negotiations said US President Donald Trump's administration is seeking to phase in deals with the most involved countries as they rush to reach an agreement by the July 9 deadline. Uncertainty over trade agreements continued to weigh on sentiment and sell the US dollar.

Investors are concerned about the US Senate's attempts to pass Trump's tax and spending cuts bill, which faces intra-party disagreement over a projected $3.3 trillion increase in the national debt. Fiscal concerns have dampened optimism and contributed to the decline in the US dollar. This, in turn, serves as a tailwind for the major pair.

German inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), eased to 2.0% y/y in June from 2.1% in the previous reading. The figure was below expectations of 2.2%.

On a month-on-month basis, HICP rose 0.1% in June vs. 0.2% previously, below the market consensus forecast of 0.3%. Softer-than-expected German inflation data may limit near-term growth.

Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1795, SL 1.1725, TP 1.1880

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.