EURUSD is showing fresh signs of exhaustion after its recent bounce, struggling to hold momentum against a resilient U.S. dollar. Price action has rejected trendline resistance and is now threatening to extend lower toward key demand zones. With the ECB battling slowing growth while the Fed remains cautious but firm, EURUSD faces mounting pressure to the downside.
Current Bias
Bearish – rejection at resistance keeps the pair vulnerable to further downside toward 1.1600 and potentially 1.1410.
Key Fundamental Drivers
U.S. dollar demand supported by safe-haven flows and relatively strong U.S. economic data.
ECB’s dovish tilt as growth falters in the Eurozone, limiting scope for additional rate hikes.
Differentials in monetary policy continue to favor the USD over the EUR in the medium term.
Macro Context
Interest rate expectations: The Fed is expected to keep rates higher for longer, maintaining a hawkish edge, while the ECB faces pressure to slow policy tightening given weak Eurozone growth.
Economic growth: U.S. growth remains more resilient than Europe’s, with Eurozone industrial and consumer sectors showing signs of fatigue.
Commodity flows: Lower European energy demand and potential disruptions in global gas/oil trade leave the euro vulnerable.
Geopolitical themes: Trade tariffs, global slowdown risks, and U.S.–EU policy divergence all weigh on the single currency.
Primary Risk to the Trend
A surprise hawkish shift from the ECB or softer-than-expected U.S. data could reignite EUR upside momentum and squeeze shorts.
Most Critical Upcoming News/Event
ECB policy meeting minutes (guidance on growth vs. inflation trade-off)
U.S. PMI & jobless claims (gauging the Fed’s stance on growth resilience)
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
EURUSD is a leader pair in the FX market, often dictating overall USD sentiment.
Movements here influence correlated assets such as DXY, gold, and EUR-crosses like EURJPY and EURNZD.
Key Levels
Support Levels: 1.1606, 1.1410
Resistance Levels: 1.1710, 1.1797
Stop Loss (SL): 1.1800
Take Profit (TP): 1.1606 (first target), 1.1410 (extended target)
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
EURUSD continues to lean bearish, with rejection from resistance and a weakening Eurozone macro backdrop providing downside pressure. The bias favors further losses toward 1.1606, with extended downside into the 1.1410 region if bearish momentum accelerates. A stop loss above 1.1800 provides protection against a breakout reversal. Traders should closely monitor ECB commentary and U.S. data releases, as any divergence from expectations could quickly shift momentum. Until then, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
Current Bias
Bearish – rejection at resistance keeps the pair vulnerable to further downside toward 1.1600 and potentially 1.1410.
Key Fundamental Drivers
U.S. dollar demand supported by safe-haven flows and relatively strong U.S. economic data.
ECB’s dovish tilt as growth falters in the Eurozone, limiting scope for additional rate hikes.
Differentials in monetary policy continue to favor the USD over the EUR in the medium term.
Macro Context
Interest rate expectations: The Fed is expected to keep rates higher for longer, maintaining a hawkish edge, while the ECB faces pressure to slow policy tightening given weak Eurozone growth.
Economic growth: U.S. growth remains more resilient than Europe’s, with Eurozone industrial and consumer sectors showing signs of fatigue.
Commodity flows: Lower European energy demand and potential disruptions in global gas/oil trade leave the euro vulnerable.
Geopolitical themes: Trade tariffs, global slowdown risks, and U.S.–EU policy divergence all weigh on the single currency.
Primary Risk to the Trend
A surprise hawkish shift from the ECB or softer-than-expected U.S. data could reignite EUR upside momentum and squeeze shorts.
Most Critical Upcoming News/Event
ECB policy meeting minutes (guidance on growth vs. inflation trade-off)
U.S. PMI & jobless claims (gauging the Fed’s stance on growth resilience)
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
EURUSD is a leader pair in the FX market, often dictating overall USD sentiment.
Movements here influence correlated assets such as DXY, gold, and EUR-crosses like EURJPY and EURNZD.
Key Levels
Support Levels: 1.1606, 1.1410
Resistance Levels: 1.1710, 1.1797
Stop Loss (SL): 1.1800
Take Profit (TP): 1.1606 (first target), 1.1410 (extended target)
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
EURUSD continues to lean bearish, with rejection from resistance and a weakening Eurozone macro backdrop providing downside pressure. The bias favors further losses toward 1.1606, with extended downside into the 1.1410 region if bearish momentum accelerates. A stop loss above 1.1800 provides protection against a breakout reversal. Traders should closely monitor ECB commentary and U.S. data releases, as any divergence from expectations could quickly shift momentum. Until then, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
Trade closed: target reached
EURUSD setup delivered exactly as planned! ✅ Price rejected from the 1.1720 resistance zone, sliding down to test 1.1600 key support, giving us a clean +67 pips move. 📉 
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📊 Forex Signals | Free Daily Alerts
✅ 85% Accuracy | 1–2 Signals/Day
💰 Profitable Trades Sent Daily – No Cost
📲 Join Us on Telegram
t.me/ultreos_forex
🎯 Upgrade to VIP:
ultreosforex.com/
✅ 85% Accuracy | 1–2 Signals/Day
💰 Profitable Trades Sent Daily – No Cost
📲 Join Us on Telegram
t.me/ultreos_forex
🎯 Upgrade to VIP:
ultreosforex.com/
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.