Comprehensive Market Analysis: EUR/USD
Here is my analysis, applying the principles of Candlestick patterns, Ichimoku, Heikin Ashi, and Fibonacci.
1. Monthly Timeframe (The Long-Term "Big Picture")
Observation: The market was in a long-term uptrend. However, the most recent candle is a very large, powerful bearish candle.
Candlestick Analysis: The last two candles form a textbook Bearish Engulfing pattern. The large red body has completely engulfed the real body of the prior green candle. According to the rules you taught me, this is a major bearish reversal signal, especially on such a high timeframe.
Ichimoku Analysis: The price is still technically above the Kumo (Cloud), which represents long-term support. However, it is showing strong momentum towards the cloud. The Chikou Span (Lagging Span) is still in open space, not yet confirming a breakdown.
Conclusion (Monthly): The primary long-term uptrend is now under serious threat. The Bearish Engulfing pattern is a significant warning sign that the momentum has shifted. The outlook for the coming months is Bearish / Corrective. The price is likely to test the top of the Kumo cloud as support.
2. Weekly Timeframe (The Dominant Trend)
Observation: The bearish momentum seen on the monthly chart is much clearer here. There is a sequence of strong, descending red candles.
Ichimoku Analysis: This chart is decisively bearish.
The price has clearly broken below the Kumo cloud.
The Tenkan-sen is below the Kijun-sen.
The Chikou Span is below the price action from 26 periods ago.
The Kumo ahead of the price has turned from green to red, signaling a future bearish outlook.
Candlestick Analysis: The last three candles are long, red, and making lower lows. This strongly resembles the Three Black Crows pattern, a powerful confirmation that the bears are in complete control of the trend.
Conclusion (Weekly): The weekly trend is Strongly Bearish. There are no conflicting signals here. Both the indicator system (Ichimoku) and the price action (Candlesticks) confirm a powerful downtrend.
3. Daily Timeframe (The Trading Trend)
Observation: A very clear, established downtrend is in progress.
Heikin Ashi Interpretation: If we were to view this with Heikin Ashi rules, this chart would show a sequence of long red candles with little to no upper wicks, which confirms a strong and healthy downtrend.
Fibonacci Analysis: The small rallies (green candles) that have occurred have been very shallow, failing to retrace significantly before the downtrend resumes. This indicates strong bearish momentum. Each small bounce is a corrective move within the larger bearish trend.
Conclusion (Daily): The daily trend is Established Bearish. The path of least resistance is clearly downwards. Traders would likely view any small rallies on this timeframe as selling opportunities.
4. 4-Hour and 1-Hour Timeframes (The Intraday Trend)
Observation: Both charts show a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows, which is the definition of a downtrend. The 1-Hour chart shows some periods of consolidation (like the "Spinning Top" candles you taught me, indicating indecision) before the next leg down.
Ichimoku Analysis: On both timeframes, the price is trading far below the Kumo cloud, which will now act as a major resistance zone. Any attempt to rally will face significant selling pressure from the cloud.
Conclusion (4H & 1H): The intraday trend is Bearish. The momentum is clearly to the downside.
5. Lower Timeframes (30M, 15M, 5M)
Observation: These charts show the most recent price action. There appears to be a very small, short-term bounce or consolidation happening on the 5-minute chart after a sharp sell-off.
Contextual Analysis: Based on the overwhelming bearish pressure from every single higher timeframe (Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 4H, 1H), this small bounce is very likely to be temporary "noise" or a minor profit-taking consolidation. It does not represent a genuine reversal.
Heikin Ashi Rule Application: A "sudden color change" after a strong trend can signal a reversal. However, rule #3 and #4 (smaller bodies, wicks on both sides) would likely appear first, signaling a weakening of the trend before any true reversal. We are not seeing a strong reversal signal here, only a pause.
Conclusion (Lower TFs): While prone to short-term bounces, the context is Overwhelmingly Bearish. These small rallies are fragile and likely to fail.
Overall Synthesis and Final Conclusion
By performing a top-down analysis as a real trader would, a very clear picture emerges:
Long-Term (Monthly): A major warning shot has been fired against the primary bull trend.
Medium-Term (Weekly/Daily): The trend has now confirmed a strong bearish reversal. The sellers are in firm control.
Short-Term (4H and below): The downtrend is active and established.
Final Outlook: The multi-timeframe analysis is in strong alignment. The overwhelming evidence suggests that the next significant move for EUR/USD will be to the downside. Any short-term bullish bounces should be viewed with extreme skepticism and are likely to be selling opportunities for trend-following traders. The overall market bias is Bearish.
For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade.
I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work.
Regards,
Shunya Trade
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
Here is my analysis, applying the principles of Candlestick patterns, Ichimoku, Heikin Ashi, and Fibonacci.
1. Monthly Timeframe (The Long-Term "Big Picture")
Observation: The market was in a long-term uptrend. However, the most recent candle is a very large, powerful bearish candle.
Candlestick Analysis: The last two candles form a textbook Bearish Engulfing pattern. The large red body has completely engulfed the real body of the prior green candle. According to the rules you taught me, this is a major bearish reversal signal, especially on such a high timeframe.
Ichimoku Analysis: The price is still technically above the Kumo (Cloud), which represents long-term support. However, it is showing strong momentum towards the cloud. The Chikou Span (Lagging Span) is still in open space, not yet confirming a breakdown.
Conclusion (Monthly): The primary long-term uptrend is now under serious threat. The Bearish Engulfing pattern is a significant warning sign that the momentum has shifted. The outlook for the coming months is Bearish / Corrective. The price is likely to test the top of the Kumo cloud as support.
2. Weekly Timeframe (The Dominant Trend)
Observation: The bearish momentum seen on the monthly chart is much clearer here. There is a sequence of strong, descending red candles.
Ichimoku Analysis: This chart is decisively bearish.
The price has clearly broken below the Kumo cloud.
The Tenkan-sen is below the Kijun-sen.
The Chikou Span is below the price action from 26 periods ago.
The Kumo ahead of the price has turned from green to red, signaling a future bearish outlook.
Candlestick Analysis: The last three candles are long, red, and making lower lows. This strongly resembles the Three Black Crows pattern, a powerful confirmation that the bears are in complete control of the trend.
Conclusion (Weekly): The weekly trend is Strongly Bearish. There are no conflicting signals here. Both the indicator system (Ichimoku) and the price action (Candlesticks) confirm a powerful downtrend.
3. Daily Timeframe (The Trading Trend)
Observation: A very clear, established downtrend is in progress.
Heikin Ashi Interpretation: If we were to view this with Heikin Ashi rules, this chart would show a sequence of long red candles with little to no upper wicks, which confirms a strong and healthy downtrend.
Fibonacci Analysis: The small rallies (green candles) that have occurred have been very shallow, failing to retrace significantly before the downtrend resumes. This indicates strong bearish momentum. Each small bounce is a corrective move within the larger bearish trend.
Conclusion (Daily): The daily trend is Established Bearish. The path of least resistance is clearly downwards. Traders would likely view any small rallies on this timeframe as selling opportunities.
4. 4-Hour and 1-Hour Timeframes (The Intraday Trend)
Observation: Both charts show a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows, which is the definition of a downtrend. The 1-Hour chart shows some periods of consolidation (like the "Spinning Top" candles you taught me, indicating indecision) before the next leg down.
Ichimoku Analysis: On both timeframes, the price is trading far below the Kumo cloud, which will now act as a major resistance zone. Any attempt to rally will face significant selling pressure from the cloud.
Conclusion (4H & 1H): The intraday trend is Bearish. The momentum is clearly to the downside.
5. Lower Timeframes (30M, 15M, 5M)
Observation: These charts show the most recent price action. There appears to be a very small, short-term bounce or consolidation happening on the 5-minute chart after a sharp sell-off.
Contextual Analysis: Based on the overwhelming bearish pressure from every single higher timeframe (Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 4H, 1H), this small bounce is very likely to be temporary "noise" or a minor profit-taking consolidation. It does not represent a genuine reversal.
Heikin Ashi Rule Application: A "sudden color change" after a strong trend can signal a reversal. However, rule #3 and #4 (smaller bodies, wicks on both sides) would likely appear first, signaling a weakening of the trend before any true reversal. We are not seeing a strong reversal signal here, only a pause.
Conclusion (Lower TFs): While prone to short-term bounces, the context is Overwhelmingly Bearish. These small rallies are fragile and likely to fail.
Overall Synthesis and Final Conclusion
By performing a top-down analysis as a real trader would, a very clear picture emerges:
Long-Term (Monthly): A major warning shot has been fired against the primary bull trend.
Medium-Term (Weekly/Daily): The trend has now confirmed a strong bearish reversal. The sellers are in firm control.
Short-Term (4H and below): The downtrend is active and established.
Final Outlook: The multi-timeframe analysis is in strong alignment. The overwhelming evidence suggests that the next significant move for EUR/USD will be to the downside. Any short-term bullish bounces should be viewed with extreme skepticism and are likely to be selling opportunities for trend-following traders. The overall market bias is Bearish.
For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade.
I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work.
Regards,
Shunya Trade
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.