EUR/USD has managed to stage a slight recovery after plunging through the key 1.1680 support — a level that had held firm for two weeks. The pair is now hovering just above 1.1500, but the bounce appears shallow and unconvincing. Volume remains low, momentum indicators offer little confirmation, and the broader structure still points to a prevailing downtrend.
On the H2 chart, price has rebounded from the 1.1505 area — a minor support formed during July's short-term consolidation. Yet, the EMA slope remains strongly negative, and RSI is struggling below the neutral 50 mark after exiting oversold territory. The structure continues to display classic lower highs and lower lows, with the 1.1585–1.1600 zone emerging as a potential resistance area for bears to re-enter.
From a macro perspective, the U.S. dollar remains supported by expectations that the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance, fueled by solid GDP, durable goods, and PCE data. In contrast, the Eurozone struggles with signs of stagnation, with both services and manufacturing PMIs deteriorating — most notably in Germany. This policy divergence continues to favor the greenback.
Unless bulls manage to decisively reclaim the 1.1600 zone with strong follow-through buying, any rebound risks being nothing more than a dead cat bounce. The downside target remains near 1.1460 – 1.1440 in the near term.
On the H2 chart, price has rebounded from the 1.1505 area — a minor support formed during July's short-term consolidation. Yet, the EMA slope remains strongly negative, and RSI is struggling below the neutral 50 mark after exiting oversold territory. The structure continues to display classic lower highs and lower lows, with the 1.1585–1.1600 zone emerging as a potential resistance area for bears to re-enter.
From a macro perspective, the U.S. dollar remains supported by expectations that the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance, fueled by solid GDP, durable goods, and PCE data. In contrast, the Eurozone struggles with signs of stagnation, with both services and manufacturing PMIs deteriorating — most notably in Germany. This policy divergence continues to favor the greenback.
Unless bulls manage to decisively reclaim the 1.1600 zone with strong follow-through buying, any rebound risks being nothing more than a dead cat bounce. The downside target remains near 1.1460 – 1.1440 in the near term.
Trade closed: target reached
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Disclaimer
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