This is a classic textbook-quality TCB setup forming right at a critical confluence zone. Here's a full breakdown from a trader's lens:
🔵 1. Trend
Bias: Bullish
The macro structure from June shows a strong uptrend, and the most recent impulse was explosive — indicating active buyers.
H4 and D1 show no trend break yet.
🔵 2. Countertrend
The descending channel is neat and controlled — no erratic spikes or liquidity wicks that signal confusion.
Compression into the demand zone (gray box) around 1.1652–1.1710 shows sellers are weakening.
This is typical of pre-breakout structure when buyers are loading up under the radar.
🔵 3. Breakout
Price just broke cleanly above the channel and is sitting slightly above the horizontal resistance (1.1710).
A retest and bullish candle confirmation would be ideal — don't rush in yet, let the market prove its intent.
🧠 Strategic Entry Zone (My Plan)
EP: 1.1710–1.1720 (after bullish retest candle)
SL: 1.1650 (just below demand and structure low)
TP: 1.1840 zone (clean R:R ≈ 1:2)
⚠️ Risk Watch
DXY inverse correlation should support this (if DXY is breaking lower, that adds confidence).
Make sure there's no high-impact news within next 4–6 hours (like US CPI, FOMC).
Session timing is favorable — NY open approaching, which brings momentum.
✅ Verdict
High-probability long setup (TCB Score: 8/10).
Wait for a bullish retest candle on the 1H or even 15M before entry. If that happens, the probability of hitting 1.1840 is strong — particularly if volume confirms.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.