🇺🇸 EUR/USD – Technical & Macro Outlook
EUR/USD has posted an impressive rally over the past few weeks, driven by a combination of technical and macro factors. It is currently trading around 1.1586, right at the edge of a major supply zone where previous sharp rejections and reversals have taken place.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Price action remains within a well-defined ascending channel that began in mid-April, fueling the bullish move from the 1.07 lows.
The current daily candle is showing signs of exhaustion within the 1.1550–1.1600 resistance zone, with upper wicks and declining volume.
RSI is in a high-neutral zone but not yet overbought, leaving room for more upside — but also increasing the probability of a technical pullback.
🔁 Key Levels:
Primary resistance: 1.1600 (multi-touch supply area)
Support 1: 1.1460–1.1430 (previous resistance, now potential support)
Support 2: 1.1300–1.1270 (demand zone + channel base)
📉 COT Report – June 3, 2025
Non-Commercials (speculators) remain net-long with over 200,000 contracts, though both long (-1,540) and short (-4,830) positions saw reductions. This suggests a bullish structure with early signs of profit-taking.
Commercials are heavily net-short, with 575,000 short contracts versus 437,000 long — a structurally bearish stance from physical market participants.
Open interest increased significantly by +20,813, pointing to renewed speculative participation and potential volatility.
🧭 Retail Sentiment
Retail traders are heavily short (80%) with an average entry around 1.1253.
This contrarian behavior is typically supportive of continued upside pressure — especially if price holds above key supports.
📅 Seasonality – June
Historical averages over 10, 15, and 20 years show a slightly bullish tendency in June.
The 2- and 5-year patterns suggest more neutral to mildly bearish behavior.
This supports a consolidation or corrective pullback, without ruling out higher moves during the summer rally.
🎯 Trading Conclusion
Current bias: Moderately bullish, with rising pullback risks near 1.1600
Possible setup: Tactical short between 1.1580–1.1610 if confirmed by bearish price action
Target: 1.1430–1.1300
Bullish scenario remains valid unless we break below 1.1270
📌 Summary
The bullish trend is strong but technically extended. Speculative positions remain net-long but are starting to unwind. The retail crowd is still betting against the move, which favors bulls. However, structural resistance calls for caution — a pullback could be imminent.
EUR/USD has posted an impressive rally over the past few weeks, driven by a combination of technical and macro factors. It is currently trading around 1.1586, right at the edge of a major supply zone where previous sharp rejections and reversals have taken place.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Price action remains within a well-defined ascending channel that began in mid-April, fueling the bullish move from the 1.07 lows.
The current daily candle is showing signs of exhaustion within the 1.1550–1.1600 resistance zone, with upper wicks and declining volume.
RSI is in a high-neutral zone but not yet overbought, leaving room for more upside — but also increasing the probability of a technical pullback.
🔁 Key Levels:
Primary resistance: 1.1600 (multi-touch supply area)
Support 1: 1.1460–1.1430 (previous resistance, now potential support)
Support 2: 1.1300–1.1270 (demand zone + channel base)
📉 COT Report – June 3, 2025
Non-Commercials (speculators) remain net-long with over 200,000 contracts, though both long (-1,540) and short (-4,830) positions saw reductions. This suggests a bullish structure with early signs of profit-taking.
Commercials are heavily net-short, with 575,000 short contracts versus 437,000 long — a structurally bearish stance from physical market participants.
Open interest increased significantly by +20,813, pointing to renewed speculative participation and potential volatility.
🧭 Retail Sentiment
Retail traders are heavily short (80%) with an average entry around 1.1253.
This contrarian behavior is typically supportive of continued upside pressure — especially if price holds above key supports.
📅 Seasonality – June
Historical averages over 10, 15, and 20 years show a slightly bullish tendency in June.
The 2- and 5-year patterns suggest more neutral to mildly bearish behavior.
This supports a consolidation or corrective pullback, without ruling out higher moves during the summer rally.
🎯 Trading Conclusion
Current bias: Moderately bullish, with rising pullback risks near 1.1600
Possible setup: Tactical short between 1.1580–1.1610 if confirmed by bearish price action
Target: 1.1430–1.1300
Bullish scenario remains valid unless we break below 1.1270
📌 Summary
The bullish trend is strong but technically extended. Speculative positions remain net-long but are starting to unwind. The retail crowd is still betting against the move, which favors bulls. However, structural resistance calls for caution — a pullback could be imminent.
Order cancelled
Buyers is controlling the momentum, for now we don't have signs of a possibile change of trend
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.