Fundamental Market Analysis for April 16, 2025 EURUSD

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Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales

20:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

EUR/USD is trading in positive territory around 1.1285 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The US dollar (USD) is currently trading near a three-year low against the euro (EUR) as trade tensions persist.

On Monday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that the Trump administration's tariff policy was a major shock to the US economy that could force the central bank to cut rates to prevent a recession even if inflation remains high. At the same time, Atlanta FRB President Raphael Bostic said the Fed should hold rates until there is more clarity.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps on Thursday amid growing recession fears related to US tariffs.Analysts believe the ECB may cut all three key interest rates at its April meeting on Thursday. The ECB cut interest rates for the second consecutive time in March, bringing the deposit rate to 2.5 per cent. Further cuts would bring the rate down to 2.25%.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1260, SL 1.1360, TP 1.1080

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