Markets have moved quickly this week and it's been a very bearish outlay for EUR/USD since last Thursday's ECB rate decision. The pair set a lower-high around that announcement and then the day after saw bears make another push, with a key hold at a Fibonacci level plotted at 1.1748. I've been highlighting that level since before the Q3 open and so far, that's the spot that bulls have failed to leave behind.
The quandary now is just how quickly this move has come on. The USD is working on its strongest month since April of 2022 and that prior instance was driven by the Fed starting a rate hike cycle, which clearly isn't happening here. Also complicating the matter is the fact that RSI on the four-hour chart has already pushed into oversold territory, making the prospect of chasing-lower a daunting item.
We've already seen an instance of prior support coming in as resistance with the hold of the daily high at 1.1457. With NFP tomorrow, perhaps the more attractive scenario would be a larger pullback which could then highlight resistance potential at either 1.1500 or 1.1560. - js
The quandary now is just how quickly this move has come on. The USD is working on its strongest month since April of 2022 and that prior instance was driven by the Fed starting a rate hike cycle, which clearly isn't happening here. Also complicating the matter is the fact that RSI on the four-hour chart has already pushed into oversold territory, making the prospect of chasing-lower a daunting item.
We've already seen an instance of prior support coming in as resistance with the hold of the daily high at 1.1457. With NFP tomorrow, perhaps the more attractive scenario would be a larger pullback which could then highlight resistance potential at either 1.1500 or 1.1560. - js
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.