4/2/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
FC
Solid co, but dip buy ONLY
- been on my radar for about a year, but "rolling" over starting last quarter and estimates really got floored
- so the "setup" from a financial POV such that we can *see* bottom and *have confidence* in mgmt "optimistic" speech is a stock you could buy
- but honestly, at higher EBITDA multiple than NXT (which as you all know is my benchmark) on a small cap stock in this environment and where this type of service (training ppl inside biz's) is likely being tightened at the margin, especially "now", early in 1H25... i can't imagine if you don't own this you would want to be piling in.
- if stock does pop, i'd guess larger holders use the liquidity to sell down/ adjust. if stock sinks... the incremental bid esp to the start to a new quarter could be limited.
- but even on trough say $20 mm FCF on a cap of $320 mm, you're at >6% fcf "not bad at all". the only issue is whether you can believe it's $20 and on it's way back to $25 or $30 in '26. i just don't think we have that visibility.
- so the play for me is if they report "abysmal results" and perhaps even we get a double whammy of mkt beta/tide go out in the coming weeks. this could be an interesting play at a double digit+ FCF yield, which is still a healthy 30% lower. so i'll set my greedy target slightly above $20 to look again <<I WOULDN'T GUESS WE GO THERE ON RESULTS>> mainly bc that sort of move on a well capitalized co like this is simply too extreme - so it would be a multi-day/week greedy target.
that's a lot of writing for a small name, but wanted to do the thinking for myself in the future b/c when we're in the moment it's easier to "just act" then go through this exercise and block out the emotions :)
have a good liberation day, or whatever that is, everyone.
V
FCSolid co, but dip buy ONLY
- been on my radar for about a year, but "rolling" over starting last quarter and estimates really got floored
- so the "setup" from a financial POV such that we can *see* bottom and *have confidence* in mgmt "optimistic" speech is a stock you could buy
- but honestly, at higher EBITDA multiple than NXT (which as you all know is my benchmark) on a small cap stock in this environment and where this type of service (training ppl inside biz's) is likely being tightened at the margin, especially "now", early in 1H25... i can't imagine if you don't own this you would want to be piling in.
- if stock does pop, i'd guess larger holders use the liquidity to sell down/ adjust. if stock sinks... the incremental bid esp to the start to a new quarter could be limited.
- but even on trough say $20 mm FCF on a cap of $320 mm, you're at >6% fcf "not bad at all". the only issue is whether you can believe it's $20 and on it's way back to $25 or $30 in '26. i just don't think we have that visibility.
- so the play for me is if they report "abysmal results" and perhaps even we get a double whammy of mkt beta/tide go out in the coming weeks. this could be an interesting play at a double digit+ FCF yield, which is still a healthy 30% lower. so i'll set my greedy target slightly above $20 to look again <<I WOULDN'T GUESS WE GO THERE ON RESULTS>> mainly bc that sort of move on a well capitalized co like this is simply too extreme - so it would be a multi-day/week greedy target.
that's a lot of writing for a small name, but wanted to do the thinking for myself in the future b/c when we're in the moment it's easier to "just act" then go through this exercise and block out the emotions :)
have a good liberation day, or whatever that is, everyone.
V
Trade active
given the market is being "liberated" from any bid...i would ordinarily dip buy this -18% even on the weak guide. but honestly we'll have bigger fish to fry tmr.
good riddance this schizo mkt. stay sane.
V
Note
even on a day like today... 25% is too much. i'm in for the swing here sub $21.
V
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.