- Tuesday’s candlestick (Jun 24) was a big bear bar closing near its low.
- In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears can create sustained follow-through selling following the sell-off in the night session, or if the market would trade lower but find support around the 4030-50 area instead.
- The market sold off sharply, and the breakout point and the 20-day EMA were tested.
- The bulls hope the top of the 3980 breakout point area and the 20-day EMA will act as support.
- They hope to get a retest of the Jun 20 high, even if it only forms a lower high.
- They must create strong bull bars to show they are back in control.
- The bears want the current move to form a major lower high (vs April) and a failed breakout above the trading range. So far, the market is reversing lower from a lower high.
- They want a resumption of the broad bear channel and the third leg down with the first two legs being Jan 17 and May 8.
- They must create more follow-through selling to increase the odds of a resumption of the broad bear channel.
- Production for June should be more or less around May's level.
- Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
- Export: Looks strong in the first 25 days +5%
- For tomorrow (Wednesday, Jun 25), traders will see if the bears can create more follow-through selling.
- The move down is strong enough for traders to expect at least a small sideways to down leg after a small pullback.
Andrew
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.