- Monday’s candlestick (Aug 11) was a big bull bar closing near its high.
- In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears could create strong bear bars trading far below the 20-day EMA, or if the market would trade slightly lower, but lack follow-through selling (again), followed by a reversal above the 20-day EMA in the next few days instead.
- The market formed a strong rally and retested the July 24 high.
- The bulls want a retest of the July 24 high, followed by a strong breakout above and another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks.
- They need to create follow-through buying over the next few days to increase the odds of another leg up.
- The bears were unable to create follow-through selling in the last four selloff attempts (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22). August 4 was the case again.
- They want the market to form a double top (vs Jul 24) and a failed breakout.
- They want the move to lack follow-through buying, forming bear bars.
- Production for August may be flat or down.
- Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently.
- Export: August export up 23% in the first 10 days.
- The market formed a retest of the July 24 high. The buying pressure remains stronger (tight bull channel, strong bull bars) compared to the weaker selling pressure (no follow-through selling).
- For tomorrow (Tuesday, Aug 12), traders will see if the bulls can create follow-through buying, even if it is only a bull doji. If the bulls can create strong follow-through buying over the next few days, the odds of another strong leg up increase.
- Or will the bears be able to create a failed breakout, closing the candlestick as a strong bear bar instead?
Andrew
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.