- Monday’s candlestick (Sept 2) was a bull bar closing near its high.
- In our last report, we stated that traders would assess whether the bears could create follow-through selling or if the market would reverse sharply, creating a bear trap.
- The market gapped up and closed higher above the 20-day EMA. The bears were unable to create follow-through selling.
- The bulls want the 20-day EMA and the bull trend line to act as support, and the pullback to be weak and sideways, lacking follow-through selling, as has been the case with all recent pullbacks (Jul 1 and Aug 4).
- They want it to form a higher low followed by a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (Aug 21 and Aug 29).
- They hope Friday's candlestick will become a bear trap. They need to create follow-through buying to increase the odds of a retest and a breakout above the August high.
- The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (June 20, July 24, and August 19), and a large double top bar flag with the February high.
- They need to create strong follow-through selling, trading below the 20-day EMA and the bear trend line to increase the odds of a sustained move.
- If the market trades higher, they want it to form a lower high or a double top.
- Production for Sept should be flat or down.
- Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
- Export: August export up 10%.
- So far, the recent sideways to down pullback has formed a higher low. There was no follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA.
- For tomorrow (Wednesday, Sept 3), traders will see if the bulls can create strong follow-through buying. If they can, the odds of a retest near the August high will increase.
- Or will the market trade slightly higher, but close with a long tail above or a bear body instead?
Andrew
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.