- Wednesday’s candlestick (Jul 9) was a bull doji closing in its lower half with a long tail above.
- In our last report, we stated that traders would observe whether the bulls could create a follow-through bull bar above the June 20 high, or if the market would trade slightly higher but close with a long tail or a bearish body instead.
- The bulls got some follow-through buying in the morning but the market reversed to close with a long tail above and closing below yesterday's low.
- The bulls hope to get a retest of the July 4 high and the Jun 20 high. They got what they wanted.
- They want a measured move based on the first leg up (July 1 to July 3), which will take the market to around the 4260 area.
- They see the current move as a pullback and want it to form a higher low vs Jul 7.
- They want another leg up to complete the wedge pattern, with the first two legs being Jul 3 and Jul 9.
- The bears see the current move as a retest of the prior high (Jun 20) and want a higher high major trend reversal and a double top bear flag (with the Jun 20 high).
- They see the current move from June 11 as a large two-legged move. They want a lower high vs the April high.
- They must create sustained follow-through selling to show they are back in control.
- Production for July should be around June's level.
- Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
- Export: Up 31% in the first 5 days of July.
- Inflation expectations subsiding slightly with the U.S. 10-Year Yield down 1% currently.
- For now, the market is trading slightly in the night market. Traders will see if this is simply a pullback, to be followed by another leg up or if the bears can create sustained follow-through selling.
- For tomorrow (Thursday, Jul 10), traders will see if the bears can create a strong bear bar closing near its low.
- Or will the market trade lower, but close with a long tail below or above the middle of its range instead?
Andrew
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.