Good Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Full bear mode. Bulls tried 3 times to get some pullback going but only huge rejections on every try and since we have crossed the daily ema, we have not touched it or came close to it. Maybe we see some sideways movement around 23000 but given my uber bearish expectation due to US bombs on Iran, I can see a giant move down to 22000 and some stalling around it. Any price above 23700 means I am wrong and markets continue to ignore every risk under the sun.
1500 points down by the bears in two weeks is decent enough for a first leg. I market two potential W5 targets for the next weeks.
current market cycle: most likely new bear trend which can bring us to 21k or 20k over the next weeks
key levels for next week: 22000 - 23700
bull case: Can they try another “ignore the risk” move after the weekend news? I doubt it but anything can happen, so my invalidation for the bears is 23700. If they print it, we move sideways but I can not, for the life of me, see this printing new highs. If you are still holding long term longs on anything, I think you are late on running for the exit.
Invalidation is below 22900
bear case: Bears have been given another gift by orange face. The selling started two weeks ago, so it has nothing to do with Iran but it will likely help in confirming the trend and maybe accelerate it. The drawn channel is a rough guess for now. We have seen slow and steady liquidation the past 2 weeks and now we could see a shift to a huge “run for the exits” and type of “liberation-day” markets. 22000 is the big next target for bears since I expect 23000 or lower to get hit immediately on futures open.
Invalidation is above 23700
short term: Full bear mode. 23000 is almost a given and we could move quickly to 22000 over the next days. If we produce an island gap with the previous bull gap 22800-23100 (don’t take those numbers per tick value, this is not an exact science, many algos see the gap differently) it’s a huge confirmation and it could not be closed for months. If we do a big gap down and bulls close it, much less chance for the bears to continue down faster.
medium-long term from 2025-06-22: New bear trend has likely started on 2025-06-05 and we saw W2 conclude on Friday. Daily close below 23000 will be the confirmation for the bears and I have drawn 2 potential final W5 targets. I have written that we will see 20000/21000 again over the summer for many weeks/months now, this even is just another excuse for “analysts” to justify the move down.
comment: Full bear mode. Bulls tried 3 times to get some pullback going but only huge rejections on every try and since we have crossed the daily ema, we have not touched it or came close to it. Maybe we see some sideways movement around 23000 but given my uber bearish expectation due to US bombs on Iran, I can see a giant move down to 22000 and some stalling around it. Any price above 23700 means I am wrong and markets continue to ignore every risk under the sun.
1500 points down by the bears in two weeks is decent enough for a first leg. I market two potential W5 targets for the next weeks.
current market cycle: most likely new bear trend which can bring us to 21k or 20k over the next weeks
key levels for next week: 22000 - 23700
bull case: Can they try another “ignore the risk” move after the weekend news? I doubt it but anything can happen, so my invalidation for the bears is 23700. If they print it, we move sideways but I can not, for the life of me, see this printing new highs. If you are still holding long term longs on anything, I think you are late on running for the exit.
Invalidation is below 22900
bear case: Bears have been given another gift by orange face. The selling started two weeks ago, so it has nothing to do with Iran but it will likely help in confirming the trend and maybe accelerate it. The drawn channel is a rough guess for now. We have seen slow and steady liquidation the past 2 weeks and now we could see a shift to a huge “run for the exits” and type of “liberation-day” markets. 22000 is the big next target for bears since I expect 23000 or lower to get hit immediately on futures open.
Invalidation is above 23700
short term: Full bear mode. 23000 is almost a given and we could move quickly to 22000 over the next days. If we produce an island gap with the previous bull gap 22800-23100 (don’t take those numbers per tick value, this is not an exact science, many algos see the gap differently) it’s a huge confirmation and it could not be closed for months. If we do a big gap down and bulls close it, much less chance for the bears to continue down faster.
medium-long term from 2025-06-22: New bear trend has likely started on 2025-06-05 and we saw W2 conclude on Friday. Daily close below 23000 will be the confirmation for the bears and I have drawn 2 potential final W5 targets. I have written that we will see 20000/21000 again over the summer for many weeks/months now, this even is just another excuse for “analysts” to justify the move down.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.