LONG FIS @ 85.50 - oversold in a falling wedge (maybe)

is another decidedly unsexy and counterintuitive stock that I love to trade. It's pretty boring, except when it's not. It's in a year long uptrend so that alone is attractive. That falling wedge referenced in the title isn't particularly relevant to MY trade thesis but maybe it would be sexy for some of you.

For me it is about being oversold and what this stock has been doing when it is. Over the past 12 months, it would have produced 18 oversold trade signals. Unsurprisingly for me, all 18 would have been profitable trades. What is most compelling for me, though, is that the longest any of them would have taken to become profitable is 6 trading days, with the average being 2.27 days using FPC.

I didn't bother to calculate the average win exactly, but 4 of the trades were over 1%, 2 were over 3%, and one was over 5% - and those were all one day trades. When all you have to do to beat the market long term is average >.042% per day, this trade is a no-brainer for me.

All the 11 other trades could have been just 0.1% gainers (they weren't) and it would still be an average of over 1% per trade and at 2.27 days/trade we are talking an average gain per day of at LEAST .44% or 10x the average day in the market as a whole. Sign me up again and again and again for that. .44% per day is 111% per year, in case you were wondering.

As always, I'll add whenever it's oversold and with FPC, I'll sell any lot at the close of the first day it becomes profitable. This isn't trading advice - DYOR. It is merely one man's musings on how I might make money in the coming days faster than the market as a whole while risking far less than having all my money parked there. Follow in my footsteps at your own risk, but if you do, I wish you luck.

Trade closed: target reached

Sold my lot for 88.08 at the close. A respectable 1 day gain, but a little disappointing. I try to post my best idea of the day here, and they usually are, but this turned out to be the worst performer of the stocks I bought yesterday (, , , and ) and the 3rd worst in my entire portfolio today overall. Still, a reminder that its .68% return is above its own average on a per day held basis, equal to 171% annualized, and was double the and 4x the today makes this feel a little better. I just had very high hopes for this trade. Maybe next time. Have a good weekend everyone!

Note

Trade summary for my records

Wins 1
Losses 0

Average gain per lot = +0.68%
Average holding period = 1 day
Gain per lot per day = 0.68%
Annualized gain per lot per day = .68% x 252 = +171%

redwingcoach

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