📊 Technical Outlook
Price strongly reacted from a key weekly demand zone between 2.0400 and 2.0500, showing clear absorption of bearish pressure. The RSI is rebounding from the 30 area, signaling early reversal potential.
The next technical target lies between 2.08900 and 2.10000, within a well-defined supply zone.
An early bullish reversal is in progress, with potential for a swing move toward the red zone.
🧠 Commitment of Traders (COT Report – 08/07/2025)
GBP: Non-commercial traders are net long, with positioning growing across the board: +869 longs / -926 shorts. Commercials reduce shorts and increase longs → Bullish bias.
AUD: Non-commercials are clearly short (-2,267 longs / +1,957 shorts). Commercials are increasing long exposure (+2,629), but still in the minority → Bearish bias.
➡️ The COT spread confirms a GBP long vs AUD short bias.
📅 Seasonality (July)
GBP: Historically strong in July, with average monthly gains across all timeframes (especially the 2Y window).
AUD: Less favorable seasonal profile in July; flat to slightly negative across all time horizons.
➡️ Seasonality supports GBP strength.
📉 Retail Sentiment
58% Long / 42% Short on GBPAUD
➡️ Retail traders are still heavily long → a shakeout of weak long hands is possible before the real rally begins.
🎯 Strategic Conclusion
GBP shows bullish convergence across technical, COT, and seasonal factors. AUD presents clear weakness.
The current price zone offers a clean entry point for longs, targeting the 2.08900–2.10000 supply zone.
Price strongly reacted from a key weekly demand zone between 2.0400 and 2.0500, showing clear absorption of bearish pressure. The RSI is rebounding from the 30 area, signaling early reversal potential.
The next technical target lies between 2.08900 and 2.10000, within a well-defined supply zone.
An early bullish reversal is in progress, with potential for a swing move toward the red zone.
🧠 Commitment of Traders (COT Report – 08/07/2025)
GBP: Non-commercial traders are net long, with positioning growing across the board: +869 longs / -926 shorts. Commercials reduce shorts and increase longs → Bullish bias.
AUD: Non-commercials are clearly short (-2,267 longs / +1,957 shorts). Commercials are increasing long exposure (+2,629), but still in the minority → Bearish bias.
➡️ The COT spread confirms a GBP long vs AUD short bias.
📅 Seasonality (July)
GBP: Historically strong in July, with average monthly gains across all timeframes (especially the 2Y window).
AUD: Less favorable seasonal profile in July; flat to slightly negative across all time horizons.
➡️ Seasonality supports GBP strength.
📉 Retail Sentiment
58% Long / 42% Short on GBPAUD
➡️ Retail traders are still heavily long → a shakeout of weak long hands is possible before the real rally begins.
🎯 Strategic Conclusion
GBP shows bullish convergence across technical, COT, and seasonal factors. AUD presents clear weakness.
The current price zone offers a clean entry point for longs, targeting the 2.08900–2.10000 supply zone.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.