GBPCAD is currently respecting a well-defined descending trendline, showing multiple rejections and a sustained series of lower highs. The latest retest near 1.8460 was met with selling pressure, aligning with the broader bearish channel.
Key Levels:
Current Price: 1.8458
Resistance Area: 1.8470 – 1.8600 (trendline & previous highs)
Support Targets:
TP1: 1.8120 (key structure)
TP2: 1.7980
TP3: 1.7900 (major support zone)
Bearish Technical Confluence:
✅ Multiple rejections at trendline
✅ Lower highs & lower lows continue
✅ Potential reversal candlestick pattern forming
✅ Bearish breakout could accelerate toward 1.7980
📉 Fundamental Outlook – BoC Rate Decision in Focus (April 16)
Market Sentiment Split:
Initially, economists leaned toward a BoC hold, as recent data and trade optimism gave the central bank room to pause.
However, March CPI undershot expectations, triggering increased speculation of a rate cut.
Key Data Highlights:
Headline CPI fell to 2.3% YoY vs 2.6% previously, well below the 2.7% forecast.
Drop mainly due to gasoline and transport costs, which BoC may look through.
Core inflation (median 2.9%, trimmed 2.8%) remains elevated, supporting arguments for a hold.
Analyst Viewpoint:
“We still marginally favor a BoC hold given the proximity to elections and resilience in core inflation, but our conviction is lower after the CPI miss.” – Knightley & Pesole, ING
Market Reaction:
Loonie sold off post-CPI, but analysts believe the sell-off may be short-lived if BoC surprises with a hawkish hold.
Swap market odds of a cut rose to 45%, up from 33% pre-CPI.
🎯 Combined Technical + Fundamental Setup
If BoC holds rates, expect CAD strength → GBPCAD could accelerate downward toward 1.8120 → 1.7900.
If BoC cuts, GBPCAD may spike temporarily toward 1.8600, but downside pressure may resume unless accompanied by dovish forward guidance.
🛠️ Trade Plan:
Sell Bias Below: 1.8470
Entry Trigger: Bearish confirmation or post-BoC rejection
TP1: 1.8120
TP2: 1.7980
TP3: 1.7900
Invalidation Zone: Break and close above 1.8600
Key Levels:
Current Price: 1.8458
Resistance Area: 1.8470 – 1.8600 (trendline & previous highs)
Support Targets:
TP1: 1.8120 (key structure)
TP2: 1.7980
TP3: 1.7900 (major support zone)
Bearish Technical Confluence:
✅ Multiple rejections at trendline
✅ Lower highs & lower lows continue
✅ Potential reversal candlestick pattern forming
✅ Bearish breakout could accelerate toward 1.7980
📉 Fundamental Outlook – BoC Rate Decision in Focus (April 16)
Market Sentiment Split:
Initially, economists leaned toward a BoC hold, as recent data and trade optimism gave the central bank room to pause.
However, March CPI undershot expectations, triggering increased speculation of a rate cut.
Key Data Highlights:
Headline CPI fell to 2.3% YoY vs 2.6% previously, well below the 2.7% forecast.
Drop mainly due to gasoline and transport costs, which BoC may look through.
Core inflation (median 2.9%, trimmed 2.8%) remains elevated, supporting arguments for a hold.
Analyst Viewpoint:
“We still marginally favor a BoC hold given the proximity to elections and resilience in core inflation, but our conviction is lower after the CPI miss.” – Knightley & Pesole, ING
Market Reaction:
Loonie sold off post-CPI, but analysts believe the sell-off may be short-lived if BoC surprises with a hawkish hold.
Swap market odds of a cut rose to 45%, up from 33% pre-CPI.
🎯 Combined Technical + Fundamental Setup
If BoC holds rates, expect CAD strength → GBPCAD could accelerate downward toward 1.8120 → 1.7900.
If BoC cuts, GBPCAD may spike temporarily toward 1.8600, but downside pressure may resume unless accompanied by dovish forward guidance.
🛠️ Trade Plan:
Sell Bias Below: 1.8470
Entry Trigger: Bearish confirmation or post-BoC rejection
TP1: 1.8120
TP2: 1.7980
TP3: 1.7900
Invalidation Zone: Break and close above 1.8600
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📊 Forex Signals | Free Daily Alerts
✅ 85% Accuracy | 1–2 Signals/Day
💰 Profitable Trades Sent Daily – No Cost
📲 Join Us on Telegram
t.me/ultreos_forex
🎯 Upgrade to VIP:
ultreosforex.com/
✅ 85% Accuracy | 1–2 Signals/Day
💰 Profitable Trades Sent Daily – No Cost
📲 Join Us on Telegram
t.me/ultreos_forex
🎯 Upgrade to VIP:
ultreosforex.com/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.