📊 COT Analysis
GBP:
Non-Commercials remain net long with 106,282 longs vs 63,425 shorts. However, long positions are decreasing (-4,794) while shorts are slightly increasing (+3,983), suggesting profit-taking or a potential shift in sentiment.
Commercials are strongly net short (35,707 longs vs 87,770 shorts), with a significant reduction in both longs (-24,958) and shorts (-33,457) — a clear reduction in overall exposure.
→ Non-Commercial positioning is still bullish, but momentum is fading.
CAD:
Non-Commercials remain heavily net short (28,154 longs vs 94,487 shorts), but notable changes are taking place: sharp increase in longs (+8,503) and a significant cut in shorts (-18,307), pointing to a possible reversal in sentiment.
Commercials are net long with a rise in both longs (+1,834) and shorts (+31,186), indicating potential hedging as expectations shift.
→ CAD strength is emerging in the COT data, supporting a potential bearish move on GBPCAD.
📈 Seasonality – June/July
GBP tends to perform poorly in June across all historical averages (-0.004 / -0.006). July shows slight positivity but is statistically insignificant.
CAD has a mildly negative June, but July is historically its strongest month (+0.006 / +0.007 on 20Y and 15Y averages).
→ Seasonal bias favors CAD strength in the June–July transition.
🧠 Retail Sentiment
Retail traders are 85% long on GBPCAD, a strong contrarian signal.
→ Such imbalance increases the odds of a correction or reversal to the downside.
→ Confirms short bias.
📉 Price Action & RSI
Price surged into strong resistance at 1.8779 (triple top area).
Current daily rejection + RSI in overbought territory suggest a potential swing high forming.
Natural downside target: 1.8400–1.8450 (prior structure and base of the move).
→ Ideal short setup from resistance with confirmation via bearish price action.
GBP:
Non-Commercials remain net long with 106,282 longs vs 63,425 shorts. However, long positions are decreasing (-4,794) while shorts are slightly increasing (+3,983), suggesting profit-taking or a potential shift in sentiment.
Commercials are strongly net short (35,707 longs vs 87,770 shorts), with a significant reduction in both longs (-24,958) and shorts (-33,457) — a clear reduction in overall exposure.
→ Non-Commercial positioning is still bullish, but momentum is fading.
CAD:
Non-Commercials remain heavily net short (28,154 longs vs 94,487 shorts), but notable changes are taking place: sharp increase in longs (+8,503) and a significant cut in shorts (-18,307), pointing to a possible reversal in sentiment.
Commercials are net long with a rise in both longs (+1,834) and shorts (+31,186), indicating potential hedging as expectations shift.
→ CAD strength is emerging in the COT data, supporting a potential bearish move on GBPCAD.
📈 Seasonality – June/July
GBP tends to perform poorly in June across all historical averages (-0.004 / -0.006). July shows slight positivity but is statistically insignificant.
CAD has a mildly negative June, but July is historically its strongest month (+0.006 / +0.007 on 20Y and 15Y averages).
→ Seasonal bias favors CAD strength in the June–July transition.
🧠 Retail Sentiment
Retail traders are 85% long on GBPCAD, a strong contrarian signal.
→ Such imbalance increases the odds of a correction or reversal to the downside.
→ Confirms short bias.
📉 Price Action & RSI
Price surged into strong resistance at 1.8779 (triple top area).
Current daily rejection + RSI in overbought territory suggest a potential swing high forming.
Natural downside target: 1.8400–1.8450 (prior structure and base of the move).
→ Ideal short setup from resistance with confirmation via bearish price action.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.