🔥 GBP/CAD – May 19, 2025
📋 Plan Overview
Parameter Details
Type Breakout Pullback
Direction Long (Buy)
Confidence 75%
R:R ~2.5:1
Status Active Monitoring
📈 Market Bias & Type
Bias: Bullish
Type: Continuation (Breakout pullback setup into dynamic + static support)
D1 confirms bullish structure; H4 confirms breakout; H1 forming a potential higher low.
🔰 Confidence Level: 75%
Factor Confidence Contribution
Multi-TF Trend Confluence ✅ +25%
Volume Confirmation ✅ +15%
Bullish Structure (Flag Retest) ✅ +20%
Momentum Indicators 🔄 Neutral +10%
Risk due to Resistance Near ❌ -5%
📍 Entry Zones
Primary Entry Zone: 1.8575 – 1.8600 (on bullish candle confirmation)
Secondary Entry Zone: 1.8545 (stronger support but riskier proximity to SL)
❗ Stop Loss - Primary
SL: 1.8540 (Below H4 support and SMA-50 dynamic level)
❗ Stop Loss - Secondary
SL: 1.8510
Reason: Below structural HL and untested daily demand. Clean invalidation of bullish setup if broken.
🎯 Targets
Target Price Rationale
TP1 1.8685 Previous local high (H1/H4)
TP2 1.8740 Measured breakout extension
TP3 1.8800 Daily upper resistance range
🧠 Management Strategy
Initial Risk: 1% capital risked on SL
Scaling: Add at retest of 1.8570 on strong candle close
Breakeven Move: At TP1 hit, SL moves to Entry
Partial Exit: 50% at TP1, 30% at TP2, rest trail with EMA 20 H1
⚠️ Confirmation Checklist
Criteria Status
Bullish Reversal Candle 🔄 Pending at support
Breakout Volume (H4) ✅ Confirmed
Session Timing (London/NY) 🔄 Wait for overlap
RSI > 50 (H1/H4) ✅ Supportive
MACD Bullish Crossover 🔄 Pending confirmation
⏳ Validity
H4 Trend Structure: Valid for 48–72 hours or until breakout fails
❌ Invalidation Conditions
Close below 1.8540 on H1 or 1.8510 on H4
Bearish engulfing during NY/London session at resistance
Loss of momentum with high-volume rejection near 1.8650
🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot
GBP: Mildly bullish from recent CPI surprise and BOE tightening tone
CAD: Crude oil stable but not strongly bullish; neutral CAD flows
Sentiment: Neutral to slightly risk-on; no upcoming red news within 12h window
📋 Final Trade Summary
This trade is a bullish continuation pullback setup following a confirmed breakout on H4. H1 suggests a healthy retracement into a key support zone around 1.8575–1.8600. With volume supportive and trend aligned across D1 and H4, this presents a technically sound buy opportunity if confirmed with bullish price action at support.
R:R is strong at 2.5:1, with risk managed below structure lows. Ideal for aggressive short-term long entries into a trend continuation environment.
📋 Plan Overview
Parameter Details
Type Breakout Pullback
Direction Long (Buy)
Confidence 75%
R:R ~2.5:1
Status Active Monitoring
📈 Market Bias & Type
Bias: Bullish
Type: Continuation (Breakout pullback setup into dynamic + static support)
D1 confirms bullish structure; H4 confirms breakout; H1 forming a potential higher low.
🔰 Confidence Level: 75%
Factor Confidence Contribution
Multi-TF Trend Confluence ✅ +25%
Volume Confirmation ✅ +15%
Bullish Structure (Flag Retest) ✅ +20%
Momentum Indicators 🔄 Neutral +10%
Risk due to Resistance Near ❌ -5%
📍 Entry Zones
Primary Entry Zone: 1.8575 – 1.8600 (on bullish candle confirmation)
Secondary Entry Zone: 1.8545 (stronger support but riskier proximity to SL)
❗ Stop Loss - Primary
SL: 1.8540 (Below H4 support and SMA-50 dynamic level)
❗ Stop Loss - Secondary
SL: 1.8510
Reason: Below structural HL and untested daily demand. Clean invalidation of bullish setup if broken.
🎯 Targets
Target Price Rationale
TP1 1.8685 Previous local high (H1/H4)
TP2 1.8740 Measured breakout extension
TP3 1.8800 Daily upper resistance range
🧠 Management Strategy
Initial Risk: 1% capital risked on SL
Scaling: Add at retest of 1.8570 on strong candle close
Breakeven Move: At TP1 hit, SL moves to Entry
Partial Exit: 50% at TP1, 30% at TP2, rest trail with EMA 20 H1
⚠️ Confirmation Checklist
Criteria Status
Bullish Reversal Candle 🔄 Pending at support
Breakout Volume (H4) ✅ Confirmed
Session Timing (London/NY) 🔄 Wait for overlap
RSI > 50 (H1/H4) ✅ Supportive
MACD Bullish Crossover 🔄 Pending confirmation
⏳ Validity
H4 Trend Structure: Valid for 48–72 hours or until breakout fails
❌ Invalidation Conditions
Close below 1.8540 on H1 or 1.8510 on H4
Bearish engulfing during NY/London session at resistance
Loss of momentum with high-volume rejection near 1.8650
🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot
GBP: Mildly bullish from recent CPI surprise and BOE tightening tone
CAD: Crude oil stable but not strongly bullish; neutral CAD flows
Sentiment: Neutral to slightly risk-on; no upcoming red news within 12h window
📋 Final Trade Summary
This trade is a bullish continuation pullback setup following a confirmed breakout on H4. H1 suggests a healthy retracement into a key support zone around 1.8575–1.8600. With volume supportive and trend aligned across D1 and H4, this presents a technically sound buy opportunity if confirmed with bullish price action at support.
R:R is strong at 2.5:1, with risk managed below structure lows. Ideal for aggressive short-term long entries into a trend continuation environment.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.