Institutional (COT) data shows a net reduction in GBP exposure, suggesting big money is pulling out of the pound. Retail sentiment also leans heavily against the trend, with traders buying the dip — another contrarian bearish signal. Seasonality does not favor the pair in August either, with historic trends leaning against GBP performance this time of year.
On the macro side, UK economic data continues to weaken. Both manufacturing and services PMI are deteriorating, indicating contraction across sectors.
Retail sales and GDP growth are negative, while inflationary pressure is easing — all of which reduces the urgency for further BOE tightening. Employment metrics are also weak, with poor job creation and falling labor market momentum.
Meanwhile, Switzerland is showing relative macro strength. The SNB is benefiting from stable inflation and its traditional safe-haven appeal, which is further boosted by rising global risk-off sentiment. Interest rate expectations are neutral for CHF but increasingly dovish for the UK, creating clear policy divergence in CHF’s favor.
On the macro side, UK economic data continues to weaken. Both manufacturing and services PMI are deteriorating, indicating contraction across sectors.
Retail sales and GDP growth are negative, while inflationary pressure is easing — all of which reduces the urgency for further BOE tightening. Employment metrics are also weak, with poor job creation and falling labor market momentum.
Meanwhile, Switzerland is showing relative macro strength. The SNB is benefiting from stable inflation and its traditional safe-haven appeal, which is further boosted by rising global risk-off sentiment. Interest rate expectations are neutral for CHF but increasingly dovish for the UK, creating clear policy divergence in CHF’s favor.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.