📉 1. Price Action & Technical Structure (D1)
Key demand zone tested with bullish reaction:
Price reacted strongly around the 1.0790–1.0840 structural demand area, previously the origin of a significant bullish impulse. The latest daily candle closed above the previous swing low, suggesting a potential technical rebound.
Immediate target:
The 1.0980–1.1010 zone, aligning with:
A clear supply area
RSI bouncing from oversold territory
A visible imbalance left unfilled
Technical bias: Short-term LONG to fill the imbalance before a potential institutional-driven short setup at supply.
2. Retail Sentiment
86% of traders are LONG, with an average entry of 1.0997
Only 14% are SHORT, with lower volume and better pricing
Current price: 1.0833, meaning most long traders are in drawdown
Contrarian view:
The heavy long positioning creates a liquidity pool between 1.0990–1.1010, making that zone highly attractive for institutional distribution and liquidation of retail longs, especially if accompanied by a structural shift.
🎯 Operational impact:
Supports a technical long to 1.10, but high risk of reversal once that level is reached.
3. COT Report
GBP (British Pound – CME)
Non-commercials:
Long: -6,434 → massive unwind of bullish exposure
Short: +2,028 → rising bearish bets
Net positioning is increasingly bearish
Commercials:
Long: +7,459 → increasing coverage against GBP weakness
Short: -569 → slight reduction
Positioning is mixed, but commercials are taking defensive long positions
GBP interpretation:
Bearish pressure rising from institutional speculators, despite some commercial support.
CHF (Swiss Franc – CME)
Non-commercials:
Long: +327
Short: +1,215
Net positioning still heavily short, but shorts increasing again
Commercials:
Long: +1,909
Short: +307
Commercials are accumulating long CHF positions (bullish sign)
CHF interpretation:
Divergence between commercials (bullish CHF) and speculators (still short) → shift may be underway.
4. July Seasonality
GBP:
Historically strong in July, especially the last 2 years (+3.5%)
Positive tendency across 10y/15y/20y averages
CHF:
Also seasonally positive in July, but underperforms GBP across most timeframes (except 2Y where CHF is also strong)
Operational impact:
Favors short-term bullish GBP/CHF bias, supported by seasonal momentum.
✅ Final Outlook
Current short-term bias is bullish, driven by:
Clear technical rebound
Visible imbalance toward 1.10
Seasonal divergence in favor of GBP
However, excessive retail long positioning + COT speculative pressure on GBP suggest this rally could be a distribution phase, offering an optimal short opportunity at 1.10.
Key demand zone tested with bullish reaction:
Price reacted strongly around the 1.0790–1.0840 structural demand area, previously the origin of a significant bullish impulse. The latest daily candle closed above the previous swing low, suggesting a potential technical rebound.
Immediate target:
The 1.0980–1.1010 zone, aligning with:
A clear supply area
RSI bouncing from oversold territory
A visible imbalance left unfilled
Technical bias: Short-term LONG to fill the imbalance before a potential institutional-driven short setup at supply.
2. Retail Sentiment
86% of traders are LONG, with an average entry of 1.0997
Only 14% are SHORT, with lower volume and better pricing
Current price: 1.0833, meaning most long traders are in drawdown
Contrarian view:
The heavy long positioning creates a liquidity pool between 1.0990–1.1010, making that zone highly attractive for institutional distribution and liquidation of retail longs, especially if accompanied by a structural shift.
🎯 Operational impact:
Supports a technical long to 1.10, but high risk of reversal once that level is reached.
3. COT Report
GBP (British Pound – CME)
Non-commercials:
Long: -6,434 → massive unwind of bullish exposure
Short: +2,028 → rising bearish bets
Net positioning is increasingly bearish
Commercials:
Long: +7,459 → increasing coverage against GBP weakness
Short: -569 → slight reduction
Positioning is mixed, but commercials are taking defensive long positions
GBP interpretation:
Bearish pressure rising from institutional speculators, despite some commercial support.
CHF (Swiss Franc – CME)
Non-commercials:
Long: +327
Short: +1,215
Net positioning still heavily short, but shorts increasing again
Commercials:
Long: +1,909
Short: +307
Commercials are accumulating long CHF positions (bullish sign)
CHF interpretation:
Divergence between commercials (bullish CHF) and speculators (still short) → shift may be underway.
4. July Seasonality
GBP:
Historically strong in July, especially the last 2 years (+3.5%)
Positive tendency across 10y/15y/20y averages
CHF:
Also seasonally positive in July, but underperforms GBP across most timeframes (except 2Y where CHF is also strong)
Operational impact:
Favors short-term bullish GBP/CHF bias, supported by seasonal momentum.
✅ Final Outlook
Current short-term bias is bullish, driven by:
Clear technical rebound
Visible imbalance toward 1.10
Seasonal divergence in favor of GBP
However, excessive retail long positioning + COT speculative pressure on GBP suggest this rally could be a distribution phase, offering an optimal short opportunity at 1.10.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.