📊 1. Technical Overview
Price broke the bullish structure decisively, closing below a key demand zone between 195.00–196.00, leaving a large unfilled imbalance.
Last week's recovery candle suggests a potential pullback toward 197.40–197.80, now acting as a resistance confluence.
The descending channel and weak RSI further support a continuation of the bearish trend.
Bearish targets: 193.50 and 192.20
📈 2. COT (Commitment of Traders) Report
GBP:
Non-commercials are cutting long positions (–5,961) and adding shorts (+6,637) → Bearish divergence developing on GBP.
JPY:
Non-commercials are heavily increasing short exposure (+15,113), but remain strongly net-long overall, indicating a potential exhaustion of bullish JPY positioning.
💭 3. Retail Sentiment
Positioning is neutral: 51% long / 49% short.
This balance suggests no excessive retail bias, leaving room for directional moves without immediate contrarian pressure.
📆 4. Seasonality
August is historically bearish for GBP/JPY:
• –2.82% (20Y average)
• –3.04% (15Y average)
• –1.44% (5Y average)
The data shows a consistent historical bias to the downside during this month.
🎯 5. Strategic Outlook
• Primary Bias: Bearish below 197.40–197.80
• Invalidation: Weekly close above 198.10
• Targets: 195.00 > 193.50 > 192.20
The confluence of technical rejection, bearish COT dynamics, neutral sentiment, and negative seasonality supports a corrective scenario for August.
Price broke the bullish structure decisively, closing below a key demand zone between 195.00–196.00, leaving a large unfilled imbalance.
Last week's recovery candle suggests a potential pullback toward 197.40–197.80, now acting as a resistance confluence.
The descending channel and weak RSI further support a continuation of the bearish trend.
Bearish targets: 193.50 and 192.20
📈 2. COT (Commitment of Traders) Report
GBP:
Non-commercials are cutting long positions (–5,961) and adding shorts (+6,637) → Bearish divergence developing on GBP.
JPY:
Non-commercials are heavily increasing short exposure (+15,113), but remain strongly net-long overall, indicating a potential exhaustion of bullish JPY positioning.
💭 3. Retail Sentiment
Positioning is neutral: 51% long / 49% short.
This balance suggests no excessive retail bias, leaving room for directional moves without immediate contrarian pressure.
📆 4. Seasonality
August is historically bearish for GBP/JPY:
• –2.82% (20Y average)
• –3.04% (15Y average)
• –1.44% (5Y average)
The data shows a consistent historical bias to the downside during this month.
🎯 5. Strategic Outlook
• Primary Bias: Bearish below 197.40–197.80
• Invalidation: Weekly close above 198.10
• Targets: 195.00 > 193.50 > 192.20
The confluence of technical rejection, bearish COT dynamics, neutral sentiment, and negative seasonality supports a corrective scenario for August.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.