GBP/JPY) Bearish analysis Read The caption

209
SMC trading point update



Technical analysis of GBP/JPY (British Pound / Japanese Yen) based on multiple Technical signals on the 4-hour timeframe. Let's break it down in detail:


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Overall Analysis Summary

Direction Bias: Bearish
Timeframe: 4H
Price (at analysis time): 195.033
Tool Used: EMA 200, RSI, Support/Resistance, Chart Pattern


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Technical Components

1. Strong Resistance Zone (~195.800 - 196.200)

Marked by 3 red arrows.

Price has rejected this level multiple times, forming a Triple Top pattern.

Suggests strong selling pressure and low probability of price breaking higher in the short term.


2. Trendline Break (Structure Shift)

Ascending support trendline (marked with "$$$") is broken.

This is a key market structure break, indicating the bullish momentum is weakening or reversing.


3. EMA 200 (193.661)

Price is currently just above the 200 EMA.

A clean break and close below the EMA would confirm trend reversal.

EMA often acts as dynamic support/resistance.



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Target Zones

Two downside targets are indicated:

Target 1: 192.600

Minor support level, could be the first stop for bearish pressure.


Target 2: 190.733

Strong historical support zone (yellow box labeled big support level).

Also aligns with measured move from the top of the range to the base (height of the range).




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RSI (Relative Strength Index)

RSI (14): ~43.40

Neutral zone (not oversold yet), meaning there’s room for more downside before oversold conditions are hit.



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Trading Psychology & Risk Management

This setup assumes:

Sellers continue to defend the resistance zone.

Break of structure (trendline + EMA) confirms shift.

Traders may consider short entries below 194.800–195.000 with stops above 196.200.



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Trade Idea (Based on This Chart)

Entry: Below 194.800 (after break confirmation)

Stop-Loss: Above 196.200

Take-Profit 1: 192.600

Take-Profit 2: 190.733

Risk-Reward: Favorable (~1:2+)


Mr SMC Trading point


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Caution

If price reclaims 196.200 and closes above the resistance, bearish setup is invalidated.

Watch for fakeouts near EMA.



plesse support boost 🚀 this analysis)

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