🔹 1. Price Action and Technical Structure
Price is currently at 2.2405, declining from the recent high in the 2.26–2.28 area.
The pair completed a descending channel with potential for reversal. A bullish reaction is taking place from the 2.2280–2.2170 demand zone, supported by previous volume spikes.
The RSI is falling, nearing oversold territory but not yet at extreme levels.
Possible technical scenarios:
Bullish: Recovery toward 2.2560–2.2600, with a potential breakout above recent highs.
Bearish: A break below 2.2170 could trigger further downside toward 2.2000 and 2.1800.
🔹 2. Seasonality (June)
NZD
June tends to be slightly positive for NZD (average: +0.0011 over 20 years), with consistent monthly patterns.
GBP
June is historically neutral to negative for GBP (average: +0.0015 over 20 years, but negative over 5 and 2 years).
➡️ This implies a seasonal edge for NZD over GBP.
🔹 3. Retail Sentiment
60% of retail traders are long on GBPNZD.
40% are short, but long positions average 2.1874, currently in profit.
➡️ This presents a mild contrarian bearish pressure, due to crowding on the long side.
🔹 4. Commitment of Traders (COT) – Institutional Positioning
GBP (as of 2025-06-03)
Commercials Net Long: +74.5K
Non-Commercials Net Short: -11.3K
Weekly changes: +30.3K longs vs. +32.6K shorts
➡️ Moderate balance, but growing speculative short interest.
NZD (as of 2025-06-03)
Non-Commercials Net Short: -23.6K
Strong weekly increase in commercial longs (+6.4K) and total long flows
➡️ NZD is seeing renewed interest from commercial players — a potential bullish signal.
🔹 5. Trading Outlook
📌 Current Bias: Neutral with short-term bearish tilt, but medium-term bullish reversal risk rising.
➤ Potential setups:
Conservative Long Entry: On bullish confirmation at 2.2170 (double bottom or bullish engulfing), target 2.2560–2.2600
Aggressive Short Entry: On pullback to 2.2490–2.2560, with stop above 2.2620, target 2.2280–2.2170
🎯 Seasonal and institutional factors favor NZD strength, but technical structure calls for caution and confirmation.
Price is currently at 2.2405, declining from the recent high in the 2.26–2.28 area.
The pair completed a descending channel with potential for reversal. A bullish reaction is taking place from the 2.2280–2.2170 demand zone, supported by previous volume spikes.
The RSI is falling, nearing oversold territory but not yet at extreme levels.
Possible technical scenarios:
Bullish: Recovery toward 2.2560–2.2600, with a potential breakout above recent highs.
Bearish: A break below 2.2170 could trigger further downside toward 2.2000 and 2.1800.
🔹 2. Seasonality (June)
NZD
June tends to be slightly positive for NZD (average: +0.0011 over 20 years), with consistent monthly patterns.
GBP
June is historically neutral to negative for GBP (average: +0.0015 over 20 years, but negative over 5 and 2 years).
➡️ This implies a seasonal edge for NZD over GBP.
🔹 3. Retail Sentiment
60% of retail traders are long on GBPNZD.
40% are short, but long positions average 2.1874, currently in profit.
➡️ This presents a mild contrarian bearish pressure, due to crowding on the long side.
🔹 4. Commitment of Traders (COT) – Institutional Positioning
GBP (as of 2025-06-03)
Commercials Net Long: +74.5K
Non-Commercials Net Short: -11.3K
Weekly changes: +30.3K longs vs. +32.6K shorts
➡️ Moderate balance, but growing speculative short interest.
NZD (as of 2025-06-03)
Non-Commercials Net Short: -23.6K
Strong weekly increase in commercial longs (+6.4K) and total long flows
➡️ NZD is seeing renewed interest from commercial players — a potential bullish signal.
🔹 5. Trading Outlook
📌 Current Bias: Neutral with short-term bearish tilt, but medium-term bullish reversal risk rising.
➤ Potential setups:
Conservative Long Entry: On bullish confirmation at 2.2170 (double bottom or bullish engulfing), target 2.2560–2.2600
Aggressive Short Entry: On pullback to 2.2490–2.2560, with stop above 2.2620, target 2.2280–2.2170
🎯 Seasonal and institutional factors favor NZD strength, but technical structure calls for caution and confirmation.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.