I was wrong on the move for GBPUSD yesterday for a move higher based on the price action and trend. 1.2340 was strong resistance given on Wednesday. And that level held and eventually sold off when it is unable to go above it. Market was sideways and after the UK data, which was neutral to bearish, market came down slightly and continued to range before the sell off on US CPI. This sell off, is likely due to market thinking that the hot CPI would likely result in Fed hiking rates/not cut so fast. But if that is really so, is that 0.1% increase significant?
But anyway, so we had a trend day yesterday down to strong support below. Price action is bearish as it negates the up move of the past 3 days and what looked like a bullish weekly candle has turned red! also price are below the zones which again points to a down trend.
Further downside for today? TBH IMO I will be cautious on shorts. Firstly, CPI 3.7% vs 3.6% expectation is not much of a difference. Does it warrant such a sell off? Also from weekly price action, last week reversal candle point to an up move this week. Of course we got the up (before this sell) but IMO, we should be looking for a green close today. Also price sold off perfectly to this 1.2176 support. So, yes, this would be a counter trend move but IMO from here, I am looking for market to move up to 1.2256 at least, and possibly to 1.2290 before we might see any meaningful pullback.
This is well a counter trend move but I will not be hurried to short from here.
But anyway, so we had a trend day yesterday down to strong support below. Price action is bearish as it negates the up move of the past 3 days and what looked like a bullish weekly candle has turned red! also price are below the zones which again points to a down trend.
Further downside for today? TBH IMO I will be cautious on shorts. Firstly, CPI 3.7% vs 3.6% expectation is not much of a difference. Does it warrant such a sell off? Also from weekly price action, last week reversal candle point to an up move this week. Of course we got the up (before this sell) but IMO, we should be looking for a green close today. Also price sold off perfectly to this 1.2176 support. So, yes, this would be a counter trend move but IMO from here, I am looking for market to move up to 1.2256 at least, and possibly to 1.2290 before we might see any meaningful pullback.
This is well a counter trend move but I will not be hurried to short from here.
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Join me for free on Patreon (patreon.com/fademeifyoucan) to receive my daily FX and indices trading plan. DM me to join my new group to learn all my trading levels and to trade together.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.