The British Pound is testing the upper range of its recent rally, just below a high-liquidity supply zone near 1.37898. While short-term bullish momentum remains intact, both the technical structure and upcoming macro events point towards a potential midweek reversal.
📉 Technical Breakdown – H4 Chart
Price has completed a full impulsive leg and is approaching a key supply zone (1.37703–1.37898), aligning with weekly highs.
Previous CHoCH + BOS formations show buyer strength, but recent rejections indicate exhaustion.
Liquidity sits below at 1.35013 and 1.33927, making downside targets attractive for short setups.
🔁 Trade Setups
✅ SELL GBP/USD
Entry: 1.37703
Stop Loss: 1.38000
TP1: 1.37100
TP2: 1.36513
TP3: 1.35013
Rationale: Selling into weak high and potential liquidity trap. Expecting rejection from the top of the weekly range.
✅ BUY GBP/USD
Entry: 1.33927
Stop Loss: 1.33600
TP1: 1.34500
TP2: 1.35237
TP3: 1.36900
Rationale: Buying from a strong demand zone and order block with FVG confluence. Clean upside potential if market respects structure.
🧠 Macro Context – What to Watch
🇬🇧 GBP Drivers:
BOE Governor Bailey Speaks (Twice this week) – May offer clarity on future monetary stance.
🇺🇸 USD Drivers:
Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Markets watching for tone on rate path.
NFP Jobs Report (Friday) – Forecast: 147K. A strong figure could support USD.
Unemployment Claims / Rate – A key pair of metrics for short-term dollar moves.
🧩 A hawkish Fed tone + strong NFP = stronger USD → pressure on GBP/USD.
📊 Key Zones
Zone Role Notes
1.37898 Weekly High Strong resistance + sell-side liquidity trap
1.37703 Sell Entry Within supply zone
1.33927 Buy Entry Order block + FVG zone, ideal reversal zone
1.35013 Major Target Previous BOS zone and liquidity below structure
⚠️ Strategy Guidance
Wait for confirmations on H1–H4 (CHoCH / FVG rejection).
Avoid new positions 1 hour before or after red-folder events (e.g., NFP, Bailey speech).
Trailing SL recommended once TP1 is reached.
📉 Technical Breakdown – H4 Chart
Price has completed a full impulsive leg and is approaching a key supply zone (1.37703–1.37898), aligning with weekly highs.
Previous CHoCH + BOS formations show buyer strength, but recent rejections indicate exhaustion.
Liquidity sits below at 1.35013 and 1.33927, making downside targets attractive for short setups.
🔁 Trade Setups
✅ SELL GBP/USD
Entry: 1.37703
Stop Loss: 1.38000
TP1: 1.37100
TP2: 1.36513
TP3: 1.35013
Rationale: Selling into weak high and potential liquidity trap. Expecting rejection from the top of the weekly range.
✅ BUY GBP/USD
Entry: 1.33927
Stop Loss: 1.33600
TP1: 1.34500
TP2: 1.35237
TP3: 1.36900
Rationale: Buying from a strong demand zone and order block with FVG confluence. Clean upside potential if market respects structure.
🧠 Macro Context – What to Watch
🇬🇧 GBP Drivers:
BOE Governor Bailey Speaks (Twice this week) – May offer clarity on future monetary stance.
🇺🇸 USD Drivers:
Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Markets watching for tone on rate path.
NFP Jobs Report (Friday) – Forecast: 147K. A strong figure could support USD.
Unemployment Claims / Rate – A key pair of metrics for short-term dollar moves.
🧩 A hawkish Fed tone + strong NFP = stronger USD → pressure on GBP/USD.
📊 Key Zones
Zone Role Notes
1.37898 Weekly High Strong resistance + sell-side liquidity trap
1.37703 Sell Entry Within supply zone
1.33927 Buy Entry Order block + FVG zone, ideal reversal zone
1.35013 Major Target Previous BOS zone and liquidity below structure
⚠️ Strategy Guidance
Wait for confirmations on H1–H4 (CHoCH / FVG rejection).
Avoid new positions 1 hour before or after red-folder events (e.g., NFP, Bailey speech).
Trailing SL recommended once TP1 is reached.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🔱 Trade with Smart Money – ICT Concepts & Price Action
🔱 Latest Daily Plan – Updated with 4–6 Free Gold Signals Daily
Join now: t.me/+BT9z8lt4yJ01OGVl
🔱 Latest Daily Plan – Updated with 4–6 Free Gold Signals Daily
Join now: t.me/+BT9z8lt4yJ01OGVl
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.