The escalation in geo-political risks overnight in the Middle East, marked by Israel's attack on Iranian nuclear sites which was followed by Iran's retaliatory drone strikes against Israel, have seen a rush to safe haven assets, which this time included buying dollars (a rarity of late!).
This has seen GBPUSD fall quickly from a fresh 2025 high hit early this morning at 1.3633, back down to lower levels around 1.3540 (at time of writing) and questions whether the highs for GBPUSD may now be in place in the short term, with traders possibly reluctant to add to fresh longs into the weekend, and ahead of next week's Bank of England (BoE) rate meeting on Thursday (June 19th).
Looking forward into the Friday close, traders may now be on headline watch, especially considering Iran's vow to respond to Israel's initial attack with harsh blows against both Israel and the US. Any attack by Iran against US targets, while potentially unlikely, could be viewed as a level up and President Trump has stated that the US are on high alert just in case.
On the data front, the US Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment for June is released at 1500 BST today. This will provide the next update on US consumer inflation expectations as well as sentiment, which although important are possibly unlikely to shift the focus of traders from progress reports regarding geo-political developments in the Middle East.
Technical Update: Rejection From New Price High Questions Uptrend
Of late, it has been a positive phase of sentiment that has been evident for GBPUSD, as a price pattern of higher highs and higher lows has formed, as the chart below shows.
This has resulted in a new recovery price high being posted this morning at 1.3633, which represents the highest trade in GBPUSD since late February 2022. However, so far this new upside extreme in price has held and seen price weakness emerge.
This may now see some traders questioning the ability of GBPUSD to maintain its current upside momentum, even suggest the potential of a more extended phase of weakness.
What support and resistance levels might be worth watching to maybe help determine the next direction of price movement?
Potential Support Levels:
Having held price weakness seen earlier this week, the rising Bollinger mid-average may continue to be a support focus. This currently stands at 1.3504, and closing breaks below this level, if seen, might result in a more extended phase of weakness.
Such downside breaks in price, while not a guarantee of further price declines, could see focus then shift to potential support at 1.3444, which is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and if this in turn gives way on a closing basis, towards 1.3385, the deeper 50% retracement level.
Potential Resistance Levels:
As the chart below shows, sellers have been found this morning at the 1.3633 level and may be again. This could prove to be the first resistance point to monitor if fresh attempts at price strength are seen over coming sessions.
Successful closing breaks above 1.3633 as a result, could point to an extension of the current uptrend pattern, with the next resistance level then potentially being 1.3749, which is the January 2022 high.
The material provided here has not been prepared
accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
This has seen GBPUSD fall quickly from a fresh 2025 high hit early this morning at 1.3633, back down to lower levels around 1.3540 (at time of writing) and questions whether the highs for GBPUSD may now be in place in the short term, with traders possibly reluctant to add to fresh longs into the weekend, and ahead of next week's Bank of England (BoE) rate meeting on Thursday (June 19th).
Looking forward into the Friday close, traders may now be on headline watch, especially considering Iran's vow to respond to Israel's initial attack with harsh blows against both Israel and the US. Any attack by Iran against US targets, while potentially unlikely, could be viewed as a level up and President Trump has stated that the US are on high alert just in case.
On the data front, the US Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment for June is released at 1500 BST today. This will provide the next update on US consumer inflation expectations as well as sentiment, which although important are possibly unlikely to shift the focus of traders from progress reports regarding geo-political developments in the Middle East.
Technical Update: Rejection From New Price High Questions Uptrend
Of late, it has been a positive phase of sentiment that has been evident for GBPUSD, as a price pattern of higher highs and higher lows has formed, as the chart below shows.
This has resulted in a new recovery price high being posted this morning at 1.3633, which represents the highest trade in GBPUSD since late February 2022. However, so far this new upside extreme in price has held and seen price weakness emerge.
This may now see some traders questioning the ability of GBPUSD to maintain its current upside momentum, even suggest the potential of a more extended phase of weakness.
What support and resistance levels might be worth watching to maybe help determine the next direction of price movement?
Potential Support Levels:
Having held price weakness seen earlier this week, the rising Bollinger mid-average may continue to be a support focus. This currently stands at 1.3504, and closing breaks below this level, if seen, might result in a more extended phase of weakness.
Such downside breaks in price, while not a guarantee of further price declines, could see focus then shift to potential support at 1.3444, which is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and if this in turn gives way on a closing basis, towards 1.3385, the deeper 50% retracement level.
Potential Resistance Levels:
As the chart below shows, sellers have been found this morning at the 1.3633 level and may be again. This could prove to be the first resistance point to monitor if fresh attempts at price strength are seen over coming sessions.
Successful closing breaks above 1.3633 as a result, could point to an extension of the current uptrend pattern, with the next resistance level then potentially being 1.3749, which is the January 2022 high.
The material provided here has not been prepared
accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Global risk Warning CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFD
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Global risk Warning CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFD
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.