GBPUSD has been trading within a Channel Down since May 2021. It is about to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), being the closest to it since breaking below it on October 29. As per the July 21 - 29 rebound, the Resistance on this rally is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3580. A break above this level, will most likely not be contained within the Channel Down and may aim for the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as the CCI has already shown more bullish momentum than any recent rebound since it broke above its July Resistance.
If on the other hand the price gets rejected on the 0.618 Fib, I expect the Channel Down to prevail once more and aggressively push for the -0.236 Fibonacci extension as a Lower Low at 1.3005. Similarly if the 1D MA200 does break for the first time since September 15, I would expect a bullish extension towards the 1.236 Fib at 1.4000.
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If on the other hand the price gets rejected on the 0.618 Fib, I expect the Channel Down to prevail once more and aggressively push for the -0.236 Fibonacci extension as a Lower Low at 1.3005. Similarly if the 1D MA200 does break for the first time since September 15, I would expect a bullish extension towards the 1.236 Fib at 1.4000.
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