I've been closely analyzing GBP/USD this week, and here's my updated view based on all the technical indicators and fundamental data.
Price Action & Key Levels
Right now, GBP/USD is trading at 1.31537, after rejecting 1.320 resistance earlier in the session. The market made a strong attempt to break above 1.320, but sellers stepped in, causing a pullback. Given this rejection, I'm watching 1.317 closely—if price fails to reclaim that level, a bearish continuation toward 1.312–1.310 becomes increasingly likely.
Technical Indicators & Market Signals
Momentum & Trend Strength
RSI: Short-term signals suggest price is consolidating (RSI at 48.78), while the daily RSI (76.08) indicates overbought conditions, meaning a larger pullback may be ahead.
Aroon Oscillator: Weakening bullish strength, suggesting trend exhaustion.
ADX: At 10.1 (1-hour), showing weak trend momentum, meaning price might stay range-bound or reverse lower.
MACD: Mixed signals—some divergence appears, showing signs of a potential downward move.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels (From 1.320 High)
23.6% retracement: 1.3172 → Minor resistance zone.
38.2% retracement: 1.3158 → Current price zone.
50% retracement: 1.3143 → Potential short-term support.
61.8% retracement: 1.3129 → Stronger support level.
78.6% retracement: 1.3110 → Critical breakdown point.
If GBP/USD fails to reclaim 1.317, I anticipate further downside toward 1.312–1.311, where stronger support exists.
Bollinger Bands Confirmation
Upper Band (~1.320): Acted as resistance—price rejected this zone, confirming sellers stepped in.
Middle Band (~1.315–1.316): Price hovering here—neutral consolidation phase.
Lower Band (~1.312–1.313): If price breaks below 1.314, downward momentum is likely toward this level.
Fundamental Factors Supporting Bearish Bias
GBP Weakness: Expected softer BRC Retail Sales, Employment Change, and Inflation Rate data, which could weigh on GBP/USD.
USD Strength: Strong Retail Sales figures and upcoming Fed Chair Powell’s speech might bolster the Dollar, adding further downside pressure to GBP/USD.
Trade Setup & Execution Strategy
Bearish Case:
If GBP/USD fails at 1.317, I’ll look to enter short below 1.3155, targeting 1.312 or lower.
Bullish Case:
If GBP/USD reclaims 1.317, buyers could push price back toward 1.320 resistance.
Conclusion
At the moment, GBP/USD is at a decision point—while short-term indicators suggest some consolidation, rejection at 1.320 confirms bearish pressure. If sellers hold control, I expect price to move toward 1.312–1.311 in the coming sessions, making a short setup favorable. However, if price reclaims 1.317, buyers may attempt another test of 1.320 resistance.
Price Action & Key Levels
Right now, GBP/USD is trading at 1.31537, after rejecting 1.320 resistance earlier in the session. The market made a strong attempt to break above 1.320, but sellers stepped in, causing a pullback. Given this rejection, I'm watching 1.317 closely—if price fails to reclaim that level, a bearish continuation toward 1.312–1.310 becomes increasingly likely.
Technical Indicators & Market Signals
Momentum & Trend Strength
RSI: Short-term signals suggest price is consolidating (RSI at 48.78), while the daily RSI (76.08) indicates overbought conditions, meaning a larger pullback may be ahead.
Aroon Oscillator: Weakening bullish strength, suggesting trend exhaustion.
ADX: At 10.1 (1-hour), showing weak trend momentum, meaning price might stay range-bound or reverse lower.
MACD: Mixed signals—some divergence appears, showing signs of a potential downward move.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels (From 1.320 High)
23.6% retracement: 1.3172 → Minor resistance zone.
38.2% retracement: 1.3158 → Current price zone.
50% retracement: 1.3143 → Potential short-term support.
61.8% retracement: 1.3129 → Stronger support level.
78.6% retracement: 1.3110 → Critical breakdown point.
If GBP/USD fails to reclaim 1.317, I anticipate further downside toward 1.312–1.311, where stronger support exists.
Bollinger Bands Confirmation
Upper Band (~1.320): Acted as resistance—price rejected this zone, confirming sellers stepped in.
Middle Band (~1.315–1.316): Price hovering here—neutral consolidation phase.
Lower Band (~1.312–1.313): If price breaks below 1.314, downward momentum is likely toward this level.
Fundamental Factors Supporting Bearish Bias
GBP Weakness: Expected softer BRC Retail Sales, Employment Change, and Inflation Rate data, which could weigh on GBP/USD.
USD Strength: Strong Retail Sales figures and upcoming Fed Chair Powell’s speech might bolster the Dollar, adding further downside pressure to GBP/USD.
Trade Setup & Execution Strategy
Bearish Case:
If GBP/USD fails at 1.317, I’ll look to enter short below 1.3155, targeting 1.312 or lower.
Bullish Case:
If GBP/USD reclaims 1.317, buyers could push price back toward 1.320 resistance.
Conclusion
At the moment, GBP/USD is at a decision point—while short-term indicators suggest some consolidation, rejection at 1.320 confirms bearish pressure. If sellers hold control, I expect price to move toward 1.312–1.311 in the coming sessions, making a short setup favorable. However, if price reclaims 1.317, buyers may attempt another test of 1.320 resistance.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.