: GBP/USD is approaching a critical resistance zone between 1.37850 and 1.38800 on the daily timeframe, presenting a potential short opportunity based on technical and fundamental factors.
Technical Analysis:
Price Action: The 1.37850–1.38800 zone aligns with prior highs and a strong resistance area, likely to trigger rejection or a bearish reversal pattern (e.g., double top or bearish engulfing).
Support/Target: Initial support at 1.3700, with a deeper target at 1.3600 if bearish momentum builds.
Indicators: RSI is approaching overbought territory (near 70), signaling potential exhaustion. MACD shows slowing bullish momentum, supporting a short bias.
Fibonacci: The 1.37850–1.38800 zone coincides with the 76.4%–88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior downmove, reinforcing resistance.
Fundamental Context:
UK economic data (e.g., weaker retail sales or PMI) suggests GBP vulnerability. Meanwhile, USD strength is bolstered by hawkish Fed expectations and resilient US economic indicators.
Risks: A breakout above 1.3900 could invalidate the setup. Monitor BoE rhetoric and US data releases for sudden shifts.
Conclusion: The 1.37850–1.38800 resistance zone offers a high-probability short setup for GBP/USD, supported by technical resistance and USD-favorable fundamentals. Use strict risk management due to potential volatility.
Technical Analysis:
Price Action: The 1.37850–1.38800 zone aligns with prior highs and a strong resistance area, likely to trigger rejection or a bearish reversal pattern (e.g., double top or bearish engulfing).
Support/Target: Initial support at 1.3700, with a deeper target at 1.3600 if bearish momentum builds.
Indicators: RSI is approaching overbought territory (near 70), signaling potential exhaustion. MACD shows slowing bullish momentum, supporting a short bias.
Fibonacci: The 1.37850–1.38800 zone coincides with the 76.4%–88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior downmove, reinforcing resistance.
Fundamental Context:
UK economic data (e.g., weaker retail sales or PMI) suggests GBP vulnerability. Meanwhile, USD strength is bolstered by hawkish Fed expectations and resilient US economic indicators.
Risks: A breakout above 1.3900 could invalidate the setup. Monitor BoE rhetoric and US data releases for sudden shifts.
Conclusion: The 1.37850–1.38800 resistance zone offers a high-probability short setup for GBP/USD, supported by technical resistance and USD-favorable fundamentals. Use strict risk management due to potential volatility.
Trade active
Trade closed: target reached
taking some profits, leaving rest on breakeven
join our discord, discord.gg/trademaster
The Ultimate Master of Trading, fulltime trader, sharing my own trades with documented 90% win rates
The Ultimate Master of Trading, fulltime trader, sharing my own trades with documented 90% win rates
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
join our discord, discord.gg/trademaster
The Ultimate Master of Trading, fulltime trader, sharing my own trades with documented 90% win rates
The Ultimate Master of Trading, fulltime trader, sharing my own trades with documented 90% win rates
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.