The daily chart shows a significant bullish impulse that encountered strong resistance in the 1.3350 - 1.3400 area, where multiple supply levels and an important institutional selling zone are located. The bearish structure remains intact below this level, suggesting a potential decline towards the key support at 1.3100 - 1.3150. The short bias strengthens with the confirmation of resistance and the formation of a potential reversal.
COT Report (USD Index and GBP/USD)
USD Index: Non-commercial traders are slightly increasing long positions (+397) while reducing short positions (-128). This suggests a potential recovery of dollar strength, supporting a bearish move on GBP/USD.
GBP/USD: Non-commercials have significantly increased short positions (+6,426) and reduced long positions (-2,957), indicating a bearish sentiment. Commercials also show a slight increase in short positions (+5,070), confirming potential weakness in the pound.
Retail Sentiment
57% of retail traders are short on GBP/USD, with an average price of 1.2916, while 43% are long at 1.3343. This imbalance could indicate a market attempt to capture stops above recent highs before a reversal.
Seasonality
Historically, the month of May shows a negative performance for GBP/USD. The 5, 10, and 15-year seasonal data indicate a consistent decline during this period, supporting the hypothesis of bearish pressure.
COT Report (USD Index and GBP/USD)
USD Index: Non-commercial traders are slightly increasing long positions (+397) while reducing short positions (-128). This suggests a potential recovery of dollar strength, supporting a bearish move on GBP/USD.
GBP/USD: Non-commercials have significantly increased short positions (+6,426) and reduced long positions (-2,957), indicating a bearish sentiment. Commercials also show a slight increase in short positions (+5,070), confirming potential weakness in the pound.
Retail Sentiment
57% of retail traders are short on GBP/USD, with an average price of 1.2916, while 43% are long at 1.3343. This imbalance could indicate a market attempt to capture stops above recent highs before a reversal.
Seasonality
Historically, the month of May shows a negative performance for GBP/USD. The 5, 10, and 15-year seasonal data indicate a consistent decline during this period, supporting the hypothesis of bearish pressure.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.