GBP/USD Setup: Support Structure + Trendline = Big Opportunity
🧠 Analysis Breakdown
1. Current Price Action:
• Price is currently testing the recent support level and the major trendline. This is a critical area for potential price direction decisions.
• The previous high marked as a “Higher High” confirms the bullish structure before this retracement.
• The recent decline is testing whether buyers will defend this accumulation zone.
2. Volume Analysis (VPVR):
• High Volume Node (HVN) near the current price suggests strong past interest, which may act as a magnet for price or serve as a support level.
• If price holds here, it indicates accumulation and could trigger a bounce.
• A breakdown below this volume shelf and trendline may signal a shift in sentiment.
3. Trendline + Structure Confluence:
• The major ascending trendline has supported price multiple times and aligns with the horizontal support.
• This confluence zone makes this a high-probability area for a potential bounce.
• If broken, bearish momentum could pick up sharply toward the 1.3600 or lower zones.
📉 Possible Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Bounce:
• Price respects the trendline and recent support.
• Likely target: 1.3750 (previous resistance) and then retest the higher high at 1.3800.
• Volume and momentum confirmation needed (e.g., bullish engulfing, strong wick rejection, rising volume).
❌ Bearish Breakdown:
• Breakdown below the trendline and support zone with increased selling volume.
• Immediate support zone lies near 1.3600–1.3620 (not shown but inferred from price structure).
• Confirmed if there’s a lower high and continuation toward 1.3550 or lower.
📈 Macro & Sentiment Context (Research):
As of July 2, 2025, here’s the relevant context:
🏦 UK Fundamentals:
• BoE (Bank of England) has signaled cautious optimism but remains concerned with inflation stability.
• Any surprise BoE rate cuts or dovish tone could pressure GBP lower.
💵 USD Fundamentals:
• The Federal Reserve remains hawkish, especially if inflation and labor data remain strong.
• Strong USD could push GBP/USD lower despite technical support.
🗓️ Upcoming Economic Events to Watch:
• US NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) data due this week could increase volatility.
• UK GDP or CPI releases – could change the current sentiment on GBP.
• Watch Fed Chair Powell’s comments and any BoE monetary policy changes.
This is a make-or-break zone for GBP/USD. The confluence of support (trendline + structure + volume node) increases the probability of a bounce. However, a confirmed breakdown below this zone could signal a bearish reversal in the short term.
🧠 Analysis Breakdown
1. Current Price Action:
• Price is currently testing the recent support level and the major trendline. This is a critical area for potential price direction decisions.
• The previous high marked as a “Higher High” confirms the bullish structure before this retracement.
• The recent decline is testing whether buyers will defend this accumulation zone.
2. Volume Analysis (VPVR):
• High Volume Node (HVN) near the current price suggests strong past interest, which may act as a magnet for price or serve as a support level.
• If price holds here, it indicates accumulation and could trigger a bounce.
• A breakdown below this volume shelf and trendline may signal a shift in sentiment.
3. Trendline + Structure Confluence:
• The major ascending trendline has supported price multiple times and aligns with the horizontal support.
• This confluence zone makes this a high-probability area for a potential bounce.
• If broken, bearish momentum could pick up sharply toward the 1.3600 or lower zones.
📉 Possible Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Bounce:
• Price respects the trendline and recent support.
• Likely target: 1.3750 (previous resistance) and then retest the higher high at 1.3800.
• Volume and momentum confirmation needed (e.g., bullish engulfing, strong wick rejection, rising volume).
❌ Bearish Breakdown:
• Breakdown below the trendline and support zone with increased selling volume.
• Immediate support zone lies near 1.3600–1.3620 (not shown but inferred from price structure).
• Confirmed if there’s a lower high and continuation toward 1.3550 or lower.
📈 Macro & Sentiment Context (Research):
As of July 2, 2025, here’s the relevant context:
🏦 UK Fundamentals:
• BoE (Bank of England) has signaled cautious optimism but remains concerned with inflation stability.
• Any surprise BoE rate cuts or dovish tone could pressure GBP lower.
💵 USD Fundamentals:
• The Federal Reserve remains hawkish, especially if inflation and labor data remain strong.
• Strong USD could push GBP/USD lower despite technical support.
🗓️ Upcoming Economic Events to Watch:
• US NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) data due this week could increase volatility.
• UK GDP or CPI releases – could change the current sentiment on GBP.
• Watch Fed Chair Powell’s comments and any BoE monetary policy changes.
This is a make-or-break zone for GBP/USD. The confluence of support (trendline + structure + volume node) increases the probability of a bounce. However, a confirmed breakdown below this zone could signal a bearish reversal in the short term.
Trade closed: target reached
It bounced back from the Support
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Certified Pro Trader | 9+ years exp | 97% accuracy | Join Sarah Analytics : t.me/SarahAnalyticsSignals
For Gold: t.me/SarahAnalyticsSignals
For Gold: t.me/SarahAnalyticsSignals
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.