1. Price Action & Zone Mapping
GBP/USD is consolidating above 1.3300 after a strong bullish reaction near the demand zone between 1.3040 and 1.3150 — an area that has already rejected price twice in recent months.
While the market structure still shows lower highs, the weekly candlestick formation signals a clear loss of bearish momentum. On the upside, the 1.3500–1.3600 zone remains the key supply area to break for a structural reversal to be confirmed.
2. COT Report – Institutional Positioning (as of May 6, 2025)
Non-Commercials (speculators) added +3,320 long positions and reduced -1,956 shorts, bringing the net long to +7,683 contracts — a strong bullish signal.
Commercials remain net short, but not with increasing aggression.
👉 The net positioning supports continued bullish bias, aligned with the recent technical rebound.
3. USD Index – Opposite Positioning
Non-Commercials increased both longs and shorts slightly on the US Dollar Index, but net positioning remains neutral with a slight bearish tilt.
This suggests a phase of indecision or mild retracement in the dollar, which indirectly supports GBP/USD upside.
4. GBP/USD Seasonality – Historical Behavior in May
According to MarketBulls data, May tends to be neutral-to-weak for the pair:
15-year avg: +0.0023
5-year avg: -0.016
2-year avg: +0.0069
Overall, this supports a ranging or corrective phase — not a high-conviction trending month. A breakout may need more confirmation.
5. Retail Sentiment
Currently, 60% of retail traders are short GBP/USD, with an average price of 1.2959, while only 40% are long from 1.3337.
👉 This imbalance favors a contrarian bullish narrative, especially if the market decides to run stops below 1.3300.
✅ Operational Outlook
GBP/USD is showing bullish consolidation signs, backed by:
Increasing institutional long interest
Contrarian retail sentiment (potential fuel for rallies)
Solid demand near 1.3040–1.3150
However, neutral seasonality and lack of structural breakout advise caution. A pullback towards 1.3200–1.3150 might come before any further upside move toward 1.3500.
🔍 Preferred Play: Wait for a retest of 1.3150 with price action confirmation before entering long. A strong breakout above 1.3350 would be early confirmation of renewed bullish pressure.
GBP/USD is consolidating above 1.3300 after a strong bullish reaction near the demand zone between 1.3040 and 1.3150 — an area that has already rejected price twice in recent months.
While the market structure still shows lower highs, the weekly candlestick formation signals a clear loss of bearish momentum. On the upside, the 1.3500–1.3600 zone remains the key supply area to break for a structural reversal to be confirmed.
2. COT Report – Institutional Positioning (as of May 6, 2025)
Non-Commercials (speculators) added +3,320 long positions and reduced -1,956 shorts, bringing the net long to +7,683 contracts — a strong bullish signal.
Commercials remain net short, but not with increasing aggression.
👉 The net positioning supports continued bullish bias, aligned with the recent technical rebound.
3. USD Index – Opposite Positioning
Non-Commercials increased both longs and shorts slightly on the US Dollar Index, but net positioning remains neutral with a slight bearish tilt.
This suggests a phase of indecision or mild retracement in the dollar, which indirectly supports GBP/USD upside.
4. GBP/USD Seasonality – Historical Behavior in May
According to MarketBulls data, May tends to be neutral-to-weak for the pair:
15-year avg: +0.0023
5-year avg: -0.016
2-year avg: +0.0069
Overall, this supports a ranging or corrective phase — not a high-conviction trending month. A breakout may need more confirmation.
5. Retail Sentiment
Currently, 60% of retail traders are short GBP/USD, with an average price of 1.2959, while only 40% are long from 1.3337.
👉 This imbalance favors a contrarian bullish narrative, especially if the market decides to run stops below 1.3300.
✅ Operational Outlook
GBP/USD is showing bullish consolidation signs, backed by:
Increasing institutional long interest
Contrarian retail sentiment (potential fuel for rallies)
Solid demand near 1.3040–1.3150
However, neutral seasonality and lack of structural breakout advise caution. A pullback towards 1.3200–1.3150 might come before any further upside move toward 1.3500.
🔍 Preferred Play: Wait for a retest of 1.3150 with price action confirmation before entering long. A strong breakout above 1.3350 would be early confirmation of renewed bullish pressure.
Note
GBP/USD is consolidating before the crash
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.