Retail sentiment is ultra-bearish, positioning is cooling, Silver is outperforming and the S&P 500 is screaming risk-on … exactly the cocktail we saw in June 2020, right before Gold & Silver exploded higher.
1️⃣ WHY THIS FEELS LIKE 2020 AGAIN
2025 (now) 2020 (pre-rally) Read-through
> 70 % of TradingView ideas are bearish 💬 > 60 % were bearish Crowd may be offsides again
Managed-money net-longs -18 % from April peak 📉 -25 % from March peak Powder for fresh longs
First monthly ETF outflow (-$1.8 bn) 🚪 Record inflows Capitulation, not euphoria
Gold/Silver ratio down to 94 ⚖️ Fell to 95 Silver leadership = bottoming tell
S&P 500 at new ATH 📈 S&P at new ATH Risk-on backdrop identical
2️⃣ WHAT’S DIFFERENT THIS TIME
Real 10-y TIPS yield +0.7 % (2020: -1 %) → smaller monetary tail-wind.
Gold already at inflation-adjusted ATH → upside could be shorter & sharper, not a fresh super-cycle (yet).
3️⃣ CHECKLIST FOR A REAL BEAR-TRAP
Signal Watch-level
Gold holds $3 200–3 250 (100-d SMA + fib) Daily close above zone
Gold/Silver ratio breaks < 90 Momentum confirmation
CFTC net-longs < 150 k Position flush
ETF flows turn positive Fear → FOMO
S&P stumbles / vols spike Classic risk-bid for Gold
Need 3 of 5 boxes ticked to validate the squeeze thesis.
4️⃣ CATALYST CALENDAR
3 Jul – NFP: sub-75 k print could fire the opening salvo.
9 Jul – Tariff freeze decision: escalation would revive safe-haven demand.
15 Jul – CPI & 30-31 Jul – FOMC: dovish turn + soft data could complete the squeeze.
Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal opinion for educational purposes only; it is not financial advice. Trading futures and commodities involves substantial risk and can lead to total loss of capital—do your own research (DYOR) and consult a qualified professional before acting.
1️⃣ WHY THIS FEELS LIKE 2020 AGAIN
2025 (now) 2020 (pre-rally) Read-through
> 70 % of TradingView ideas are bearish 💬 > 60 % were bearish Crowd may be offsides again
Managed-money net-longs -18 % from April peak 📉 -25 % from March peak Powder for fresh longs
First monthly ETF outflow (-$1.8 bn) 🚪 Record inflows Capitulation, not euphoria
Gold/Silver ratio down to 94 ⚖️ Fell to 95 Silver leadership = bottoming tell
S&P 500 at new ATH 📈 S&P at new ATH Risk-on backdrop identical
2️⃣ WHAT’S DIFFERENT THIS TIME
Real 10-y TIPS yield +0.7 % (2020: -1 %) → smaller monetary tail-wind.
Gold already at inflation-adjusted ATH → upside could be shorter & sharper, not a fresh super-cycle (yet).
3️⃣ CHECKLIST FOR A REAL BEAR-TRAP
Signal Watch-level
Gold holds $3 200–3 250 (100-d SMA + fib) Daily close above zone
Gold/Silver ratio breaks < 90 Momentum confirmation
CFTC net-longs < 150 k Position flush
ETF flows turn positive Fear → FOMO
S&P stumbles / vols spike Classic risk-bid for Gold
Need 3 of 5 boxes ticked to validate the squeeze thesis.
4️⃣ CATALYST CALENDAR
3 Jul – NFP: sub-75 k print could fire the opening salvo.
9 Jul – Tariff freeze decision: escalation would revive safe-haven demand.
15 Jul – CPI & 30-31 Jul – FOMC: dovish turn + soft data could complete the squeeze.
Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal opinion for educational purposes only; it is not financial advice. Trading futures and commodities involves substantial risk and can lead to total loss of capital—do your own research (DYOR) and consult a qualified professional before acting.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.