Gold ripping higher (+60% YoY)
Economy faces cost pressures (gold pricing in inflation fears)
This is bearish-biased for QQQ unless CRBS/US10Y cools back below +8% because of multiple compression risk - growth narrative struggles if inflation is sticky while real growth is soft
This setup (gold vertical, CRBS/US10Y sinking) = stagflation hedge regime
CRBS/US10Y >8% while US10Y trends lower is one of the cleanest stagflation warning signals
- Investors are hedging inflation risk, currency debasement, or policy uncertainty
- Gold outperformance shows capital fleeing to “hard money” rather than growth assets
- CRBS/US10Y above 8% + US10Y trending down is a classic stagflation warning
Economy faces cost pressures (gold pricing in inflation fears)
- Bond market is saying “growth is slowing/policy will ease"
- Commodities are saying “inflation pressures are rising"
- That’s the exact recipe for stagflation - weak real growth, sticky/accelerating inflation
This is bearish-biased for QQQ unless CRBS/US10Y cools back below +8% because of multiple compression risk - growth narrative struggles if inflation is sticky while real growth is soft
- Valuations pressured by elevated yields
- No reflationary support from commodities
- Historically underperform in stagflation regimes
This setup (gold vertical, CRBS/US10Y sinking) = stagflation hedge regime
- QQQ continues higher if yields stabilize & capital rotation pauses (20%)
- Possible if Fed pivots or inflation fears calm while liquidity remains strong
- QQQ consolidates near highs (30%)
- Yields + inflation fears cap upside, but strong AI/earnings narrative prevents a deep selloff
- Most likely outcome (50%) is stagflation + sticky yields compress multiples (5%–10% correction risk)
CRBS/US10Y >8% while US10Y trends lower is one of the cleanest stagflation warning signals
- For QQQ it usually shifts probabilities heavily toward correction
- For gold/commodities it confirms continued strength
I am not a licensed professional & these posts are for informational purposes only, not financial advice
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
I am not a licensed professional & these posts are for informational purposes only, not financial advice
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.