Not trading off my data anymore. Here's my thesis.
-Large option OI expiring this week for GME and a lot of other stocks due to leaps bought in 2022/2021.
-Going back to my old ongoing theory about SLD Tuesday (Next Week's Tuesday) where the Opex week's options e.g this week's expiring options will settle on Monday and shares on Tuesday. The bigger the amount expiring on Friday, the more the net total that needs to hit next Monday/Tuesday.
-During Opex, Wednesday - Friday is the opening window for banks to post collateral to the NSCC and OCC/Option Clearing Corporation which handles all options netting, clearing, settlement. This window opened on the 18'th and ends on the 20'th of Jan.
-BOFA made money disappear from people's accounts this week just 1 day before this window. This tells me BOFA is posting a massive amount of money towards this big opex and option clearing. The amount post netting of all these positions should be big enough to move the market really hard next week.
-Another Canary in the mine is my data here imgur.com/BTN76OT The TLDR is that IF i'm right and it's a big IF, we're in a March 2022 mode for GME where the price went parabolic around SLD Tuesday (Next Week Tuesday). I'm pushing it with this, in the data i have this is the most similar occurence to what's going on right that i found.
-For SPY's ranges, there's support at $383 imgur.com/blRaahO (Unless that breaks in which case bye bye) and that to-be bottom coincides perfectly with SLD Tuesday (Next Week) for a nice perfect reversal (again i'm pushing it).
-IEP (Icahn Enterprises) ticker's usually drops and immediately after that we have a GME run. This is a consistent pattern over the past 2 years. IEP is yet to drop. I'm keeping my eye for it.
-Wabbuffet's (Warren Buffet) KO is pumping in this market which is normal as it's dips are bought by clever investors. It could also simply signify what the rest of the market has to flip to (bullish) by the end of the day after what i think is one final dump.
-Yesterday the price touched $400.01... again and dumped, i managed to read this one and quickly reposition my puts whilst the underlying price of SPY was at $399.80 ish and rode that down to today's low. It's done this a few more times in the past and it usually ended with us being in the $370 range... but i think this time this dump is a quick dump to a price where we can pump from next week.
This is what non data based trading looks like. I'm all in on FD's for next week. I'm confident in this one jut like i was in all my previous losing trades which means you should inverse me and buy puts. Here's my portfolio right now: imgur.com/ERV9cw8
Yes it's all FD's and i don't plan on exiting with a loss early this time. I'm letting this ride until the end. I'm either going to make it, or i'm not. Tomorrow/Monday is the optimal day to buy calls, but i'm impatient and like to lose Theta. I wouldn't yolo into GME this hard unless i was really sure (of a string of conspiracies mixed with real regulations and other technical stuff). Anyway i think that i'm right so here i am yoloing it all until the end.
I think this is going to be the last Yolo and post here for a while if it fails. I have a dislike for forums where GME/BBBY is discussed as the tinfoil is deep reaching, but here i am creating my own and going with it putting my money where my mouth is. Do with that what you will.
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I can't believe it. IEP is going for it.Note
The data is out and it's full on bearish.imgur.com/a/QMNtXpd
I'm not deterred though, i think the data will move a bit sideways today and then will start to move upwards on Monday onwards. I'm not even thinking about breaking even at this point. It's round objects to the wall. PT $28 by next Friday.
No way the upcoming amount of volume can be internalized, Failed to be Delivered, Shorted (Unless it's already net short vol from OPEX...).
I still insist the best days to buy are Today/Monday when IV is low. I managed to jump in on relatively low IV yesterday (87-97%) not that it matters as Theta gang will eat their part thanks to the weekend Theta.
I get paid on Wednesday. If by some miracle it hasn't lifted off by then, my entire sallary is going into FD's for next week.
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KO is showing a huge shooting star indicating a hugely bearish market for next week. I'm not gonna listen to my own advice and i'm going to conntinue to hold my stupid position into next week.Note
Not gonna lie... i'm checking today's data on SPY/TQQQ/SQQQ/Vix etc and things are looking really bearish... I'm still not going to listen to what everything around me is telling me about next week being a bloodbath...Note
Oh my. Ther it is. A Friday market recovery. I've written about this endlessly in my older DD's on the OPEX phenomenon where the market suddenly reverses to a pump exactly today and continues until the 30'th of the month.I haven't seen this happen since November 2021... I think it's really happening. Next week's Tuesday onwards should be amazing. Monday should show some very very slight movement and then Tuesday or the next day should be the big mover day...
IEP hasn't done a huge gap down as i hoped and that's the only signal that hasn't been fulfilled to indicate a run. Everything else so far is kinda ok except my trading data which insists everything is bearish.
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WOW. IEP IS DOING ITNote
Nevermind, IEP did nothing. Here's my positions for those who are wondering: imgur.com/a/PeTWYLEWaiting for the data to become available. Will update tomorrow.
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Really good news. This may actually play out as expected.imgur.com/a/RNj3Ejn
I'm mildly excited that for once no weird fear based shit was used as an excuse for dumping the whole market during a run. I really hope next week there's no sudden MSM fear stuff going on as an excuse to dump it all.
Reasons to dump everything next week exactly on Monday or Tuesday onwards:
-Vix is elevated by a lot for no particular reason
-War, Russia, Ukraine, Putin threatens Nuclear War
-Some entity is going bankrupt next week which destabilizes the market
-AMC announces share offering or just generally makes a filing for no reason.
-BBBY announces some bs.
-FTX $400 mil shares held by SBF now in FBI hands suddenly sold at market price.
-MARA, AMC, GRAB, F, GME, FIVN, HOOD, CHPT, DT, COIN which are basically the meme basket gets really really screwed for reasons.
-Crypto dumps over the weekend and or on Monday/Tuesday.
-Tesla announces something on par to a split/share offering/buy back etc.
That's about it. As long as the above don't happen, we're finally finally FINALLY... going to run.
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BREAKING: Pakistan raises benchmark interest rate by 100 bps — to the highest in more than 24 years — as its economic crisis mounts.Please don't let this be the reason why we dump :P Doubt it will, mentioning it anyway.
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Well, here we go.Note
Ah yes, the good old:SPY up $2 dollars
XRT up $1.1 dollar
GME up 60 cents.
Cool story bro.
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Cooldown time. 12.5% achievedI doubt it'll try and run for 25% in a single day, that's rare.
I think 12.5% more tomorrow, perhaps 25%. Tomorrow's the main attraction, today's just T+1 Option settlement. Tomorrow's where the real party for T+2 share settlement starts. Lots of vol should be hitting the market from Friday's opex.
Wednesday should be equally good from today's share deliveries for option settlement. After that, you're on your own.
Trade closed manually
Fairly sure we'll see some stupidly high price tomorrow, but i'm not staying in for it.Already cycled out into some other sectors that won't be affected by this SPY blowout for the longer term.
Since this Yolo worked, i'll be making more posts.
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You better be out. Vix is finally moving. As if they'd let this be a mega run.Disclaimer
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.