Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Fundamental Analysis
In 2025, gold has appreciated around 27% year-to-date, reaching a peak of 33.37% at the end of April, driven by structural factors. Its strength is based on global de-dollarization, central bank purchases, persistent inflation, and expectations of real rate cuts in the U.S. Since real interest rates peaked in July 2023, gold has risen 74%, reinforcing its role as a hedge against monetary policy.
In addition, countries like China and Russia continue to accumulate gold as protection against the dollar and potential sanctions, supporting long-term structural demand. Diversifying with physical and financial gold (ETFs, mining stocks) is an increasingly common strategy in an environment of high debt, geopolitical tensions, and doubts about traditional safe-haven assets. A suggested allocation in a classic model portfolio could range between 10% and 25%, depending on the risk profile, in a typical equity-focused investment portfolio.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, gold has completed a long-term “cup with handle” formation that began in 2012, with an upside projection toward the $4,000 per ounce area. This pattern supports the continuation of its long-term upward structure.
In the short term, however, the price is in a consolidation phase after reaching all-time highs of $3,499.94 at the end of April. Since then, the lateral movement suggests a pause within the primary trend.
Technical indicators are showing mixed signals: RSI and MACD are pointing toward a possible oversold condition, suggesting a risk of short-term correction. Additionally, a bearish crossover between the 50-day and 100-day moving averages may reinforce selling pressure.
If this corrective scenario unfolds, gold could retrace toward a key support zone around $3,140, a level that has served as the base of the current range and where renewed buying interest could emerge.
Despite a possible pullback, the broader technical outlook remains constructive. Any correction would likely present tactical opportunities to re-enter the market—especially if expectations of real rate cuts or global geopolitical tensions persist.
Gold Consolidates After Highs
All in all, despite potential short-term pullbacks, gold continues to offer value as a tool for diversification, wealth protection, and a hedge against systemic risks. Its inclusion in portfolios remains relevant, even at current levels.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Fundamental Analysis
In 2025, gold has appreciated around 27% year-to-date, reaching a peak of 33.37% at the end of April, driven by structural factors. Its strength is based on global de-dollarization, central bank purchases, persistent inflation, and expectations of real rate cuts in the U.S. Since real interest rates peaked in July 2023, gold has risen 74%, reinforcing its role as a hedge against monetary policy.
In addition, countries like China and Russia continue to accumulate gold as protection against the dollar and potential sanctions, supporting long-term structural demand. Diversifying with physical and financial gold (ETFs, mining stocks) is an increasingly common strategy in an environment of high debt, geopolitical tensions, and doubts about traditional safe-haven assets. A suggested allocation in a classic model portfolio could range between 10% and 25%, depending on the risk profile, in a typical equity-focused investment portfolio.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, gold has completed a long-term “cup with handle” formation that began in 2012, with an upside projection toward the $4,000 per ounce area. This pattern supports the continuation of its long-term upward structure.
In the short term, however, the price is in a consolidation phase after reaching all-time highs of $3,499.94 at the end of April. Since then, the lateral movement suggests a pause within the primary trend.
Technical indicators are showing mixed signals: RSI and MACD are pointing toward a possible oversold condition, suggesting a risk of short-term correction. Additionally, a bearish crossover between the 50-day and 100-day moving averages may reinforce selling pressure.
If this corrective scenario unfolds, gold could retrace toward a key support zone around $3,140, a level that has served as the base of the current range and where renewed buying interest could emerge.
Despite a possible pullback, the broader technical outlook remains constructive. Any correction would likely present tactical opportunities to re-enter the market—especially if expectations of real rate cuts or global geopolitical tensions persist.
Gold Consolidates After Highs
All in all, despite potential short-term pullbacks, gold continues to offer value as a tool for diversification, wealth protection, and a hedge against systemic risks. Its inclusion in portfolios remains relevant, even at current levels.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.