# 🟡 XAU/USD (Gold CFD) – Weekly Opening Outlook | SMC Perspective
**Date:** 2025/08/17
**Timeframe:** 45M (Heikin Ashi)
**Methodology:** Smart Money Concept (SMC)
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## 📊 Market Context
Gold closed the previous week under heavy liquidity grabs after multiple **CHOCH** and **BOS** structures. The current market is positioned around **3,335**, balancing between two potential phases:
1. **Phase 1 (Bullish Recovery)**
2. **Phase 2 (Bearish Continuation)**
Both phases are mapped on the chart with clear structural references.
---
## 🔵 Forecast Phase 1 – Bullish Scenario
1. **Key Levels:**
- **Immediate Demand Zone:** 3,330 – 3,335
- **Equilibrium Reaction Zone:** 3,350 – 3,360
- **Liquidity Pool:** 3,380 – 3,390
2. **Conditions for Validation:**
- Price must hold the **discount demand zone** (PDI).
- A strong **CHOCH → BOS** sequence from current level.
- Break and close above **3,350 equilibrium**.
3. **Expected Move:**
- Push towards **previous PDH** and sweep above **3,370 – 3,380**.
- Potential continuation into **EQH (3,390 – 3,400)** liquidity zone.
4. **Targets:**
- 🎯 TP1: **3,350** (equilibrium retest)
- 🎯 TP2: **3,370 – 3,380**
- 🎯 TP3: **3,390 – 3,400** (EQH / liquidity sweep)
5. **Invalidation:**
- Closing candles below **3,330 demand zone** will weaken bullish outlook.
---
## 🔴 Forecast Phase 2 – Bearish Scenario
1. **Key Levels:**
- **Discount Zone:** 3,320 – 3,325
- **Major Demand Zone:** 3,300 – 3,280
- **Extended Liquidity Pool:** 3,260 – 3,250
2. **Conditions for Validation:**
- Failure to hold above **3,335 – 3,330**.
- Clear rejection at equilibrium levels (**3,350 – 3,360**).
- A new **BOS** towards the downside.
3. **Expected Move:**
- Market could unfold in 5-leg structure (as shown on chart: ① → ⑤).
- First rejection around **3,335 – 3,340**, followed by extension towards **3,310 – 3,280**.
- Final liquidity sweep possible into **3,260 – 3,250 zone**.
4. **Targets:**
- 🎯 TP1: **3,320 – 3,325**
- 🎯 TP2: **3,300 – 3,280**
- 🎯 TP3: **3,260 – 3,250**
5. **Invalidation:**
- A confirmed **bullish CHOCH** above **3,350 equilibrium** invalidates the bearish scenario.
---
## ⚖️ Summary
- **Phase 1 (Bullish):** Possible rebound from current demand towards **3,390 – 3,400** liquidity.
- **Phase 2 (Bearish):** Failure at equilibrium may trigger deeper continuation into **3,280 – 3,250 demand**.
Traders should monitor **CHOCH / BOS confirmations** closely before positioning.
---
#XAUUSD #Gold #SMC #CHOCH #BOS #Liquidity #FVG #TradingView
**Date:** 2025/08/17
**Timeframe:** 45M (Heikin Ashi)
**Methodology:** Smart Money Concept (SMC)
---
## 📊 Market Context
Gold closed the previous week under heavy liquidity grabs after multiple **CHOCH** and **BOS** structures. The current market is positioned around **3,335**, balancing between two potential phases:
1. **Phase 1 (Bullish Recovery)**
2. **Phase 2 (Bearish Continuation)**
Both phases are mapped on the chart with clear structural references.
---
## 🔵 Forecast Phase 1 – Bullish Scenario
1. **Key Levels:**
- **Immediate Demand Zone:** 3,330 – 3,335
- **Equilibrium Reaction Zone:** 3,350 – 3,360
- **Liquidity Pool:** 3,380 – 3,390
2. **Conditions for Validation:**
- Price must hold the **discount demand zone** (PDI).
- A strong **CHOCH → BOS** sequence from current level.
- Break and close above **3,350 equilibrium**.
3. **Expected Move:**
- Push towards **previous PDH** and sweep above **3,370 – 3,380**.
- Potential continuation into **EQH (3,390 – 3,400)** liquidity zone.
4. **Targets:**
- 🎯 TP1: **3,350** (equilibrium retest)
- 🎯 TP2: **3,370 – 3,380**
- 🎯 TP3: **3,390 – 3,400** (EQH / liquidity sweep)
5. **Invalidation:**
- Closing candles below **3,330 demand zone** will weaken bullish outlook.
---
## 🔴 Forecast Phase 2 – Bearish Scenario
1. **Key Levels:**
- **Discount Zone:** 3,320 – 3,325
- **Major Demand Zone:** 3,300 – 3,280
- **Extended Liquidity Pool:** 3,260 – 3,250
2. **Conditions for Validation:**
- Failure to hold above **3,335 – 3,330**.
- Clear rejection at equilibrium levels (**3,350 – 3,360**).
- A new **BOS** towards the downside.
3. **Expected Move:**
- Market could unfold in 5-leg structure (as shown on chart: ① → ⑤).
- First rejection around **3,335 – 3,340**, followed by extension towards **3,310 – 3,280**.
- Final liquidity sweep possible into **3,260 – 3,250 zone**.
4. **Targets:**
- 🎯 TP1: **3,320 – 3,325**
- 🎯 TP2: **3,300 – 3,280**
- 🎯 TP3: **3,260 – 3,250**
5. **Invalidation:**
- A confirmed **bullish CHOCH** above **3,350 equilibrium** invalidates the bearish scenario.
---
## ⚖️ Summary
- **Phase 1 (Bullish):** Possible rebound from current demand towards **3,390 – 3,400** liquidity.
- **Phase 2 (Bearish):** Failure at equilibrium may trigger deeper continuation into **3,280 – 3,250 demand**.
Traders should monitor **CHOCH / BOS confirmations** closely before positioning.
---
#XAUUSD #Gold #SMC #CHOCH #BOS #Liquidity #FVG #TradingView
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.