5/7/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
GOOGL
Adding it back today at $150
- i'll leave valuation for another post, except to say (based on the logic below), it's more attractive than the converse.
- aapl news/ testimony saying 'search lower'. okay.
- in my own experience, it did get disintermediated by various ai chats (i use several), but ultimately i'm finding two things 1/ i am spending more time in search, so the pie is growing and that still includes the same amt of time/ searches in google and 2/ google's search has gotten much better w/ the gemini response
- will it be harder to monetize ads? probably yes.
- is the lazy google culture going to be mostly replaced by AI? also yes (hurray!) and nobody seems to want to underwrite this
- so as long as their general digital businesses (must consider maps, email, cloud... many others incl. ai effors, waymo, i could go on) remain not falling apart at the seams, i'd believe their size/ capex budget still puts google as a leading AI-software winner from today
- add to this that most of the biz is digital e.g. no tariff exposed (yes the ads they serve are affected so i get it)
- also no real "china" exposure like say aapl/ nvda etc.
- so ultimately, does it go lower? V says "idk and idc" it's one of these businesses that post last results still delivered. generates cash. valuation reasonable as i mention above (we can get into this in another note later or in the comments)
- but days like today and it's mostly deleveraging. no real money LO is selling this thing in size, the opposite
- so i'm a buyer. necking out w/ some bi weekly calls for notional which allows me to get the "fed" reaction wrong and also benefit from a move higher.
- stock is a buy here
- and thanks aapl. keep talkin'
V
GOOGLAdding it back today at $150
- i'll leave valuation for another post, except to say (based on the logic below), it's more attractive than the converse.
- aapl news/ testimony saying 'search lower'. okay.
- in my own experience, it did get disintermediated by various ai chats (i use several), but ultimately i'm finding two things 1/ i am spending more time in search, so the pie is growing and that still includes the same amt of time/ searches in google and 2/ google's search has gotten much better w/ the gemini response
- will it be harder to monetize ads? probably yes.
- is the lazy google culture going to be mostly replaced by AI? also yes (hurray!) and nobody seems to want to underwrite this
- so as long as their general digital businesses (must consider maps, email, cloud... many others incl. ai effors, waymo, i could go on) remain not falling apart at the seams, i'd believe their size/ capex budget still puts google as a leading AI-software winner from today
- add to this that most of the biz is digital e.g. no tariff exposed (yes the ads they serve are affected so i get it)
- also no real "china" exposure like say aapl/ nvda etc.
- so ultimately, does it go lower? V says "idk and idc" it's one of these businesses that post last results still delivered. generates cash. valuation reasonable as i mention above (we can get into this in another note later or in the comments)
- but days like today and it's mostly deleveraging. no real money LO is selling this thing in size, the opposite
- so i'm a buyer. necking out w/ some bi weekly calls for notional which allows me to get the "fed" reaction wrong and also benefit from a move higher.
- stock is a buy here
- and thanks aapl. keep talkin'
V
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.