Short

Updated

GRTUSD - Bearish Scenario - Triangle Break-out

Unfortunately, it does look like we have a couple of 4 hour candle closes below our symmetrical triangle for GRTUSD.

This would make for about a 45% drop to the low to mid 30 cent area.

We may see a test back up to about 60 cents to test the bottom of the triangle and the S/R thereabouts.

I've had many fib hits in the 20 cent area, too, and I would consider that the prime opportunity.

I would expect to consolidate maybe for a bit in the 30's, maybe initially get a wick down toward 20 cents, who knows.

My buys are scatted down to 20 cents, personally.

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This is a little bit messy, but here is the confluence that I have below.

Note

Tough Call right now with BTC finding support at 30k. Maybe we bottomed for now for the recovery rally across the board.

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We just had a pretty elaborate bear trap. I could see a relief rally to about 90 cents maybe, if we can break the upper trend line. I would expect us to fail and then head to the real bottom afterward.

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as an expected possibility - we went up and tested the 60 cent area. Rejection so far. BTC had a pretty decisive rejection from 35k. Still up in the air what they do with this bear trap rally, though. bullish and bearish seem to be equal right now as a possibility.

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I converted my GRT to BTC for right now.

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So we did break above the 60 cent area, and are sitting on the bottom of the triangle for now - there is a short term trend break - and I expect the price to come back down - just not 100 on if they take it to a new low or not. BTC looks to want to do a recovery rally still, so that is why I converted to BTC for right now.

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IDK if they are trying to sneak in a small tern continuation pattern, but it may be. They've already done the trend break, so I'm not 100% sold on this sneaky little triangle that they snuck in.

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Actually, it may be construed as a descending triangle that would act as a reversal pattern.

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BTC already got rejected from the downtrend - so please respect your stop loss! If you're just collecting sats - getting into BTC was still good - and if you're trying to preserve USD for below - certainly respect your stops!

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Come on, give it to us! Keep in mind that 20 cents and below is also possible - but much confluence suggests the 30's as an area of interest!

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Also - note the bearish Doji close on the daily from yesterday - so far we are on course to confirm it with a bearish engulfing today.

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This may play out as Wyckoff accumulation. We'd be doing the test after spring right now if that is the case. - Nothing would surprise me at this point, lol.

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just remember, this is another way of looking at GRT now, too. I give it a very low chance that this is the bottom even if we get any kind of sustained rally - but always good to be prepared for anything.

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Almost looks like BTC went into yet another rising wedge - it may not be going anywhere here. The Wyckoff accumulation that everyone wants to play out may not go as planned.

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Shooting star rejection at the downtrend - prime opportunity in the 20's(maybe lower) to 30's (cents) area likely coming soon.

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the BTC side of GRT looks to be finding its way out of its big downtrend. Not sure if the USD side will remain propped up or not if BTC doesn't find support at 34 - 35k.

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bada bing bada bam!

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Wyckoff accumulation rally in place - here is the S/R on the way up.

Dawnchorus

Related publications

GRTUSD - Recovery Rally Plans Updated (bear scenario included)

by Dawnchorus

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