HARMONY GM CO LTD

Our opinion on the current state of HARMONY(HAR)

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Harmony (HAR) was historically considered South Africa's most marginal gold mine until it effectively brought the Mponeng gold mine into operation. The development of Mponeng and its processing plant is expected to cost approximately US$2.8 billion, and Harmony currently lacks its share of the required capital, around R20 billion. In 2021, the company purchased Mponeng gold mine for R4.2 billion. Mponeng is the world's deepest mine, presenting all the challenges associated with ultra-deep level mining. Harmony is also making strides in renewable energy, with a 30MW solar park under construction in the Free State and plans to build an additional 80MW of green power.

On 6th October 2022, Harmony announced its agreement to purchase 100% of the Eva copper project in Australia for R4.1 billion. While Harmony remains a volatile and risky gold producer, these recent acquisitions, particularly the Eva project, could significantly shift its strategic direction, potentially moving it out of a sole focus on precious metals. The Eva project is not expected to commence production for another three years but is projected to add 260,000 ounces of gold and 1.7 billion pounds of copper to Harmony's reserves.

In its results for the six months ending 31st December 2023, Harmony reported a 14% increase in gold production and an 8% decline in the rand, leading to an 18% increase in the average price received. This resulted in a 226% increase in headline earnings per share (HEPS) and a declared dividend of 147c per share. The company highlighted the approval of the Mponeng extension project, which will extend the mine's life from 7 to 20 years and increase margins. Additionally, the Hidden Valley mine generated operating free cash flow of R1,769 million (US$95 million), driven by excellent recovered grades.

In an update on the nine months ending 31st March 2024, the company reported an 8% increase in recovered underground grades to 6.16 grams per ton and a 10% increase in gold production. Gold revenue increased by 26%, thanks to a 17% rise in the rand price of gold. Harmony also reported having net cash of R1.544 billion. On 3rd April 2024, the company announced the signing of a wage deal with all of its unions for the next five years.

On 19th June 2024, Harmony confirmed that it would meet its production, grade, and cost guidance for the year ending 30th June 2024, citing exceptional operating free cash flow generation due to improved recovered grades, a higher rand gold price, and sustained operational excellence. Further, on 24th August 2024, the company announced that it would comfortably meet its cost guidance for the 2024 year, with total production expected to exceed the FY24 guidance of 1,550,000 ounces (48,210kg), and all-in-sustaining costs projected to come in below R920,000/kg.

Technically, the share is in a strong upward trend, making it a play on the gold price and the rand/US dollar exchange rate.

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